The Michigan Wolverines are in big trouble. They just lost their second game of the season and could be headed to a .500 record. They have to beat the Minnesota Golden Gophers Saturday.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, September 27th – 3:35 PM ET
Odds: Michigan -11.5
Why The Golden Gophers Will Cover
They are playing a powerless offense. Michigan has done something that few people could have expected at the beginning of the season: It has gone through the first four weeks of the season without scoring a single offensive touchdown against a team from a so-called “group of five” conference, one of the top five conferences in the country (the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC, plus Notre Dame and BYU). Michigan has played two teams outside the group of five, Appalachian State and Miami of Ohio. In those games, the Wolverines have scored touchdowns. However, when playing Notre Dame and Utah (from the Pac-12), Michigan’s offense has not scored a single touchdown. Michigan was shut out by Notre Dame, and it scored 10 points against Utah, but the Wolverines’ touchdown was an interception return, a result of the defense’s work and not anything the offense was able to do. When an offense is that bad, it’s hard to expect it to play a really good game. Michigan should be able to score one or two offensive touchdowns in this game, but will the Wolverines score three or four? That’s not really likely. As long as Minnesota can score something like 13 points against Michigan’s defense, the Golden Gophers should be able to lose by single digits, something like 20-13 or 19-13. Michigan will need to get a defensive or special teams touchdown if it is going to cover the number here.
Why The Wolverines Will Cover
They are going up against a very limited Minnesota offense, one that will give Michigan a chance to not only win this game, but win it comfortably. Minnesota quarterback Mitch Leidner, through four games, has attempted only 54 passes, an average of under 14 pass attempts per game. Leidner has completed only 26 of those passes, just under half of all his attempts. Leidner is averaging under seven pass attempts per game. Minnesota has played an FCS team, Eastern Illinois; a lower-level FBS team (Middle Tennessee, from Conference USA); TCU of the Big 12, and San Jose State of the Mountain West. Only TCU is a solid opponent. Minnesota’s passing offense should be much better than it’s been to this point in the season. If Michigan’s defense, which played very well against Utah, can defend the run, it’s hard to see how Minnesota will score 10 points. Michigan could win this game, 20-6, and cover.
Outlook
Minnesota will be able to score 13 to 16 points, and manage to cover the spread. Michigan will win, but it will be close.
Pick: Minnesota +11.5
