The Purdue Boilermakers haven’t won many Big Ten games the past few seasons, especially not on the road. After winning just such a game, can Purdue cause trouble for Michigan State?
Michigan State Spartans @ Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, October 11th – 3:30 PM ET
Odds: Michigan State (-21)
Why The Spartans Will Cover
They are the far better team, and after what they just went through, they’re likely to be a lot more focused in the fourth quarter of this specific game. Michigan State was pounding Nebraska, 27-3, in the third quarter, and was well on its way to winning the game handily.
Then, however, the Spartans continued to make all sorts of mistakes. They suffered some busted coverages, they allowed a long kick return, their offense stalled, and they missed a field goal.Nebraska scored 19 fairly quick points and pulled within five, 27-22. They had felt the game was over, just as their students did. The Michigan State student section abandoned its seats in the fourth quarter, since the night game started near 8:15 p.m. local time and had moved past 11 p.m. However, Michigan State’s players still had to play and finish the game, and they almost failed. The Cornhuskers even drove the ball inside the Michigan State 40 in the final minute and threw one pass into the end zone which a Nebraska receiver was able to get one hand on. However, that receiver couldn’t make a catch, and moments later, Michigan State came up with an interception to barely survive. The team won, but the coaching staff had to hate the way the team stepped off the gas pedal. Michigan State is likely to play four full quarters in this game, and if the Spartans do that, they’re way bigger, stronger and faster than Purdue. They should romp.
Why The Boilermakers Will Cover
They might have found some solutions on offense. Purdue didn’t just win a rare Big Ten road game against Illinois this past week. Purdue won because it was actually able to do good things, not just because Illinois slipped. Purdue gained over 550 yards of offense, and what’s more is that Purdue gained at least 200 yards of both rushing and passing. Purdue gained just over 200 passing yards, but it was able to run for 349, and that kind of balance – fairly good in multiple ways, but especially good on the ground – is what makes both a coaching staff and an offensive line feel good.
Purdue will enter this game with confidence, and it will likely be able to offer Michigan State an aggressive game plan. Michigan State has a great defense, but if the Spartans see things from Purdue that they haven’t seen before, the Boilermakers can get the jump on Michigan State and create a game that will be close well into the fourth quarter. Purdue’s offense is good enough to keep this game much closer than the spread would suggest.
Outlook
If Purdue had beaten a team better than Illinois, there might be reason to value the Boilermakers here. However, Michigan State is likely mad after almost blowing a 24-point lead to Nebraska. Take Michigan State here.
Pick: Michigan State -21
