NCAAF Picks: Urban Meyer has again reminded everyone why he is in the elite and top tier category of college football head coaches. When starting QB Braxton Miller was declared out for the season due to an injury in training camp the Ohio State Buckeyes were written off for dead but Meyer has instead transformed them into a top shelf Big Ten title and Final Four playoff contender that is getting better by the week. The defending Big Ten champion Michigan State Spartans are one of the toughest teams in the land both physically and mentally and are at their best at home in Spartan Stadium.
In a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game and a showdown for the top spot in the Big Ten East division the Spartans will host the Buckeyes at Spartan Stadium with coverage on ABC starting at 8 PM ET. Michigan State is listed as a 3.5-point favorite.
Bucks getting Buck$
Ohio State is 7-1 straight up, 6-2 against the spread, and 7-1 over the total after a 55-14 home payout over Illinois for their sixth consecutive SU win. Ohio State ranks fourth in the nation for scoring offense and eighth for total defense. Quarterback J.T. Barrett has a 23-7 TD-INT ratio with nine yards per attempt and is getting better and more confident by the week.
Spartan Green
Michigan State is 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, and 7-1 over the total. The Spartans are coming off a bye week that followed a 35-11 home payout over Michigan. Michigan State ranks fifth in the nation for scoring offense and fifth for total defense. Head coach Mark Dantonio has also proven to be among the best and the days of MSU lacking an offense that compliments their defense are long gone.
Our Pick
Ohio State has seen a value drop in their recent road games with just two payouts in their last six away matchups. The Buckeyes have gone over the total in five out of their last six away games.
Michigan State has been an outstanding board value at Spartan Stadium with eight payouts in their last 11 home games. The Spartans have gone over the total in five out of their last six home games.
The Spartans have come away with the cash in three out of their last five games with the Buckeyes as for out of the last six meetings between the Spartans and Buckeyes have gone under the total. Michigan State scored a 34-24 win and payout over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game last year as they wore down the outmatched Bucks with a powerful second half.
This should be a tight one and the Spartans defense is the difference for us.
We’ll call for Michigan State (-3.5) and under the total.
