The Michigan State Spartans want to build off their Rose Bowl victory by making the College Football Playoff. The Oregon Ducks want to bounce back from a tough 2013 season.
Michigan State Spartans @ Oregon Ducks
Saturday, September 6th – 6:40 PM ET
Odds: Oregon -12
Why The Spartans Will Cover
They have the kinds of players that can cause Oregon’s offense to grind to a crashing halt. Oregon does have some elite players, beginning with quarterback Marcus Mariota. However, Mariota and Oregon’s other setbacks and receivers have been stopped by Stanford’s defense the past two seasons. Stanford’s physical play and its collection of truly impressive physical specimens on its defensive line have been able to contain Oregon and make the Ducks seem very limited on offense. Michigan State is that same kind of defense. The Spartans are loaded with talent on that side of the line of scrimmage. They come at opposing offenses in waves. They start with stopping the run, which is where Oregon likes to attack first. They can take away the Ducks’ strengths and can specifically achieve the goal of keeping Mariota in the pocket, unable to bust loose for the long runs he is capable of reeling off. Mariota is not just the kind of quarterback that can get a 10-yard chunk here and a 15-yard run over here. He’s a guy who can run 80 yards for touchdowns, and he’s done that sort of thing in the past. Michigan State snuffs out and prevents those kinds of plays. If this defense plays its best against Oregon, the Spartans can turn to their offense and a quarterback, Connor Cook, who threw just one incomplete pass in his team’s season opener against Jacksonville State. Cook might have been going up against a weak team, but he was almost perfect. He’s ready. So are the Spartans.
Why The Ducks Will Cover
They have the best player on the field. Shilique Calhoun is a great defensive end for Michigan State, and he’s going to make a lot of money as a first-round NFL draft choice next spring. However, Oregon has Marcus Mariota, a Heisman candidate and an experienced custodian of the Ducks’ high-powered offense. Mariota is so experienced that he’s going to minimize the impact of Chip Kelly no longer being with the Oregon program. New coach Mark Helfrich can turn the offense over to Mariota as something of a player-coach, a guy who can lead by example on the field and bring his Oregon teammates along. Mariota is going to cover up so many of Oregon’s other weaknesses and limitations. He’s going to be very comfortable playing this game at home as well. He can initiate sequences on offense that Michigan State can’t fully prepare for. He can be a problem on broken plays. Oregon, at home, will gain so much compared to if it had played this game on the road or on a neutral field.
Outlook
If Michigan State wants to beat Oregon outright, it has to play a near-perfect offensive game. However, for Michigan State to merely cover the number, it has to play well on defense. Michigan State won’t get the offensive masterpiece, but it will get a solid enough defensive performance to stay close. Oregon wins, Michigan State covers.
Pick: Michigan State +12
