NCAAF Picks:: The defending national champion Florida State Seminoles have played with something of a championship hangover so far in 2014, but have still been able to stay undefeated. The undefeated Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are coming off their biggest scare of the season as they may have been peaking ahead to this week’s showdown matchup that has serious playoff implications.
The Seminoles will host the Fighting Irish at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ABC starting at 8 PM ET. Florida State opened as an 11 point favorite, although the line has been off the board for much of the week due to Jameis Winston’s up-in-the-air status.
Overlays for Seminoles
The defending national champion Florida State Seminoles are 6-0 straight up, but 1-5 against the spread, and 3-3 on totals after a 38-20 win at Syracuse as 23 point overlays. Their poor betting value is a direct result of a public that continues to bet them up too high. FSU has not been dominant so far in 2014 as they rank 33rd in the nation for total offense and 43rd for total defense, which is a deep drop from their top-level metrics of 2013.
Domers Golden against Line
Notre Dame is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS, and 2-4 under the total after their 50-43 home win over North Carolina as 16 point overlays. It was the first bad performance by an Irish defense that still ranks an impressive ninth in the nation for points allowed. Quarterback Everett Golson has been clutch with a strong 16-4 TD-INT ratio.
Matchup and Pick
Notre Dame has covered the spread in seven out of their last 11 away games with 10 out of their last 13 road matchups going under the total. Florida State has been a strong betting value at home however with 11 payouts in their last 16 games at Doak Campbell Stadium with six out of their last eight home games going under the total.
Florida State has covered the spread in their last two meetings with Notre Dame as the last two meetings have gone under the total. Florida State has not been a good betting value this year however and has looked too sloppy too often. Notre Dame has the defense and quarterbacking to spring the upset. We call for Notre Dame and under the total.
