NCAAF Picks: The Oklahoma Sooners were among the top shelf contenders that went down to defeat last week as part of the historic string of upsets. The Texas Longhorns are out manned as they endure the roster turnover caused by the strong arm tactics of first year head coach Charlie Strong, who was hired to clean house and toughen up a program that had become soft and entitled.
The Longhorns will face the Sooners on Saturday at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX with coverage on ABC starting at noon ET. Oklahoma opened as a 14 point favorite.
Overrated OU?
Oklahoma is 4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread, and 4-1 over the total after a 37-33 loss at TCU in which they were outgained 461-469. Quarterback Trevor Knight was proclaimed “The Answer” to OU’s quarterback dilemma based on a hot hand in that Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. However, the numbers indicate that he is woefully inconsistent with a 5-5 TD-INT ratio and 54 percent completion rate. OU also has defensive issues as they rank 53rd overall nationally.
Offensive Offense for Horns
Texas is 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, and 1-4 under the total after a 28-7 home loss to Baylor last week. Texas ranks 117th in the nation for both total and scoring offense while their defense ranks a respectable 20th for points allowed.
Matchup and Pick
Texas has struggled to maintain good betting value away from home with just three payouts in their last 10 road games with four out of their last five away games going under the total. Oklahoma on the other hand has been a strong board value away from home with nine payouts in their last 13 road matchups as just three out of their last 13 away games have gone under the total. Oklahoma had won and covered their last three meetings with Texas before last year’s 36-20 upset win by Texas. We expect big time revenge here with the powerful Sooners who are deeper, more talented and angry after their loss at TCU. Oklahoma is the call.
