NCAAF Picks: The Oregon Ducks have shown strength, resilience, and character by playing their best football of the season after their early loss to Arizona. The Stanford Cardinal has never feared Oregon and has matched up well with the Ducks as their mirror opposite in style. Stanford has suffered a noticeable drop in offensive production, however, that has damaged their championship aspirations.
The Ducks will host the Cardinal at Autzen Stadium on Saturday with coverage on FOX starting at 7:30 PM ET. Oregon opened as a 12 point favorite.
Defense Carries Cardinal
Stanford is 5-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread, and 1-6 under the total. The Cardinal are coming off a 38-14 home payout over Oregon State. Stanford ranks a disappointing 91st in the nation for scoring offense. The Stanford defense is among the nation’s best ranking second overall and second for points allowed. Stanford’s strong defense has been a thorn in Oregon’s side in past meetings.
Ducks Rolling
Oregon is 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 4-3-1 over the total. The Ducks are coming off a 59-41 payout at Cal for their third consecutive win and cover. Oregon ranks eighth in the nation for total offense and sixth for scoring offense. Defense is the Ducks liability as far as national aspirations go. Oregon ranks 108th in the nation for total defense. QB Marcus Mariota is a top tier Heisman Trophy candidate with a 69% pass completion rate at 10.5 yards per pass and a spectacular 24-1 TD-INT ratio.
Matchup and Pick
Stanford has suffered from a drop in betting value in road games with a mark of just three payouts in their last nine away matchups.
Oregon has also struggled to maintain good betting value at home with just four payouts in their last 10 games at Autzen Stadium with five out of their last eight home games going over the total.
Stanford has come away with the money in four out of their last six meetings with Oregon including the last two meetings. The Cardinal and Ducks have gone under the total in their last two matchups. Stanford has paid out in two out of their last three visits to Oregon with three out of the last four meetings between Stanford and Oregon at Autzen Stadium going over the total. We’ll call for Stanford to stay within the 12 points.
