NCAAF Picks: It has become more apparent that the Oklahoma Sooners Sugar Bowl win last January over a deflated Alabama team was not an indicator of future national championship success. In 2014, the Sooners continue to struggle with mediocre metrics and as an overlay on the betting board. The Kansas State Wildcats are coming off a bye week which gives them an immediate advantage as head coach Billy Snyder never wastes an extra week to prepare for a key upset.
No. 11 Oklahoma will host the 14th-ranked Wildcats at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon with coverage on ESPN starting at noon ET. Oklahoma opened as a 10-point favorite.
More than Meets the Eye
Kansas State is not a program of five star recruits and super stars but is arguably the best run program in the country. The Wildcats are 4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread, and 3-2 over the total. The Wildcats rank 15th in the nation for total defense and 16th for scoring offense to make for a dangerous and live dog.
Oklahoma Overlays
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU but 3-3 ATS and has failed to get the money in their last two matchups. The Sooners are coming off a 31-26 win over an outmanned Texas team as 16.5 point chalks. The Sooners rank 65th in the nation for defense and 42nd for total offense as QB Trevor Knight has been inconsistent. The hype of the Sugar Bowl win has proven to be quite a misguided reach and classic overreaction that has damaged OU’s board value with the general betting public.
Matchup and Pick
Kansas State has been a solid betting value on the road with 12 payouts in their last 17 away games with nine out of their last 13 away games going under the total. Oklahoma has been a sluggish board value at home with just five payouts in their last 12 games at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium with five out of their last seven home games going over the total.
Oklahoma has had the upper hand recently in this head to head series with four payouts in their last six games with Kansas State as five out of those six meetings went over the total. But K-State has been at their best at Oklahoma with two payouts in their last two visits to OU with two out of the last three meetings between the Wildcats and Sooners at Oklahoma going over the total. We’ll call for Kansas State and over the total in this one.
