NCAAF Picks: The military tactics of first year Texas head coach Charlie Strong are laying the foundation for a tough defense and more disciplined team that showed promise for the future in last week’s 33-16 win and payout over West Virginia. The rebuilding Oklahoma State Cowboys have simply had too much roster turnover and injuries to remain a competitive contender in the Big 12 Conference this year.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys will host the Texas Longhorns at T. Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on FOX starting at 7:30 PM ET. Texas opened as a 1.5 point favorite.
No Bull and Shot at a Bowl
Texas is 5-5 straight up, 6-4 against the spread, and 3-7 under the total. The Longhorns need one more win for bowl eligibility. Texas is coming off their best performance of the year and is showing a toughness and polish that has been missing for several seasons in their program. Texas still has work to do on offense as they rank 102nd in the nation overall. The improved Horns defense ranks 33rd in the nation for scoring defense.
Thrown off Their High Horse
Oklahoma State is 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS, and 5-4 over the total. The Cowboys are coming off a bye week that followed a 48-14 blowout loss at Kansas State. The Pokes have lost three games in a row SU and four in a row ATS. Oklahoma State ranks 85th in the nation for total defense and 92nd for scoring defense.
The offense has been nearly as bad ranking 78th overall and 72nd for scoring. This will be the final home game for the Pokes in 2014 as they are also one win shy of bowl eligibility. Quarterback Daxx Garman has proven to be overwhelmed in filling in for the injured JW Walsh. Garman has an 11-11 TD-INT ratio.
Our Pick
Texas has shown improvement as a road betting value recently with five payouts in their last eight road matchups. The ‘Horns have gone under the total in six out of their last eight away matchups.
After a strong run of home profits Oklahoma State has suffered a drop in betting value at T. Boon Pickens Stadium recently with just three payouts in their last seven home games. The Pokes have gone under the total in just two out of their last seven home tilts.
Texas has come away with the money in six out of their last seven visits to Oklahoma State with their last four matchups with Oklahoma State at T. Boone Pickens Stadium going over the total.
We like resurgent Texas in this one.
