NCAAF Picks: The Florida State Seminoles proved last week that they can beat a quality opponent without Heisman Trophy winning QB Jameis Winston who was suspended for last week’s overtime home win over Clemson. NC State is undefeated but also untested as a team that has loaded up on junk food wins over weak opposition.
The NC State Wolfpack will host the Florida State Seminoles at Carter Finley Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ESPN2 or ABC set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Florida State opened as a 23 point favorite, but the line has since dropped to 19.5. Please check BetDSI for the latest lines as this one should keep fluctuating before kickoff.
Name Brand Power Overlays
The success of Florida State and their status as the top-ranked team and defending national champion has brought down their line value with all of the casual public betting money coming their way. Florida State is 3-0 straight up and 0-3 against the spread with a 1-2 mark under the total. FSU rallied from behind for a 23-17 home win over Clemson but failed to cover as 9.5-point chalks. The Seminoles have mediocre metrics that should be cause for concern as they rank 69th in the nation for total offense and 54th for total defense.
Undefeated and Unproven
NC State is 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS, and 2-2 on totals after last week’s 42-0 home payout over Presbyterian which was their second win over an FCS team this season. Quarterback Jacoby Brisset has a 70 percent completion rate with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio.
Matchup and Pick
As Florida State gains more notoriety and respect they also get more public betting action which has resulted in a drop in their board value on road games as they have paid out in just four out of their last 13 away games with seven out of their last nine away gams going over the total. NC State on the other hand has been a poor betting value at home with just two payouts in their last nine home games as four out of their last seven home games have gone over the total. NC State has owned the cashier’s cage in their head-to-head series with Florida State as the Wolfpack has come away with the cash in 11 out of their last 13 games with the Seminoles as seven out of the last 10 games between Florida State and NC State have gone under the total. We’ll ride with NC State based on series history and FSU’s poor value as of late.
