The Fresno State Bulldogs and USC Trojans played in a bowl game to end their 2013 seasons. They now play the first game of the new season. How will each team react?
Fresno State Bulldogs @ USC Trojans
Saturday, August 30th – 7:35 PM ET
Odds: USC -21.5
The Bulldogs can win because…
They remember what it was like to get pounded in Las Vegas during last December’s bowl game. That was the last time Fresno State took the field in a live game. The Bulldogs won the Mountain West Conference championship and felt very optimistic about what they could do in that game. However, USC, knowing that Ed Orgeron would not be its coach on a permanent basis for the 2014 season and beyond, still played with great confidence and focus, believing that the future of the program was bright. USC smacked around Fresno State in the trenches and pulled away early in the game for an easy victory that was never in doubt. Fresno State is going to be very motivated by that game, and it will want to immediately show USC that it is not afraid of the Trojans, especially in Los Angeles for a road contest.
What also works in Fresno State’s favor is that a lot of stories are developing in which the Trojans are being surrounded by distractions just before kickoff time. USC’s Josh Shaw had to recant a story in which he claimed he saved a family member, and that has created a big clamor surrounding the program. USC running back Anthony Brown also left the team after calling coach Steve Sarkisian a racist in social media settings. Players are standing by Sarkisian, but the bizarre and odd occurrence still can’t be something the Trojans wanted to happen right before the first game of their new season. Put all these things together, and Fresno State just might be getting USC at the right time.
The Trojans can win because…
They are still the much better and more talented team, playing at home, with a few key positional advantages. It’s not worth it to overthink this game and depend on the distraction angle as a way of thinking that Fresno State will actually win this game outright. USC mauled Fresno State a year ago in the bowl game between these teams, and that was on a day when Fresno State had David Carr as its quarterback and Davante Adams as its top wide receiver. Carr and Adams were an almost unstoppable combination. Carr had a quick release, and Adams was able to get open instantly, enabling Fresno State to beat opposing secondaries not just on deep passes, but also on quick passes, especially slant-ins. The Carr-Adams duo made it possible for Fresno State to get a defense off balance and looking for the pass. Fresno State could then slip in the run as a change of approach. Without both Carr and Adams, Fresno State could be lost at sea in this game.
Outlook
Fresno State might be able to contain USC’s offense at times, enabling the Bulldogs to cover the spread. However, Fresno State is not going to find enough points to win this game outright. USC should win by 14 or so.
Pick: Fresno State +21.5
