NCAAF Picks: It took a couple of tough seasons as new members of the Pac 12 Conference for Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham to get his program stocked with the talent and depth necessary for success in a Power Five Conference. But the Utes have now taken shape as a team that should be a perennial Pac 12 title contender.
The Oregon Ducks are facing the real and present danger of a letdown after their 45-16 revenge payout against arch rival Stanford last week.
The Utes will host the Ducks at Rice Eccles Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ESPN starting at 10 PM ET. Oregon is listed as an eight point favorite.
Ducky Times
Oregon is 8-1 straight up, 5-4 against the spread, and 5-3-1 over the total. The Ducks are coming off a 45-16 home payout over Stanford as seven point chalks. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is the top Heisman Trophy candidate and triggers the nation’s sixth-ranked offense. Mariota has an insane 26-2 TD-INT ratio with a 68 percent completion rate at 10.2 yards per attempt. He is also the Ducks second leading ball carrier at 5.8 yards per carry with seven TD’s.
However, what’s keeping the Ducks from really soaring is a defense that ranks an alarming 105th overall.
Utes get Stuck by The Fork
Utah is 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, and 2-5-1 under the total. The Utes are coming off a painful 19-16 overtime loss at Arizona State. Utah, while improved, has the metrics of a team that is mediocre. The Utes rank 92nd in the nation for total offense and 61st for total defense.
Matchup and Pick
Oregon has been a strong betting value on the road with 13 payouts in their last 17 away matchups. The Ducks have gone under the total in five out of their last six away games.
Utah has been a valued betting commodity at home however with 11 payouts in their last 16 home games. The Utes have gone under the total in six out of their last eight home matchups. Utah has paid out in three out of their last four games against Oregon with the last two meetings between the Ducks and Utes going over the total. Oregon scored a 44-21 home win over Utah last year as the Utes covered as a 38 point dog.
The Utes are significantly improved from last year and will have a packed house at The Muss that will be primed for an upset on the national stage. The Oregon defense and the potential of a letdown add to Utah’s value. Utah (+8) and over is the call.
