The Buffalo Bills (+14) are gearing up to host their AFC East counterpart New England Patriots (-14) at New Era Field. ESPN will broadcast the action and this Monday Night game gets going at 8:15 p.m. ET.
New England Patriots -14 -925 ov 44½
Buffalo Bills +14 +550 un 44½
Odds Provided by BetDSI.eu
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Buffalo is a big underdog in this AFC game and is currently getting 14 points. The Patriots are also receiving -925 moneyline odds while the Bills are +550. If one team can find paydirt early on it’ll produce a reasonable live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 44.5 points.
Square bettors have been siding with the Patriots, as the opening line was 13. The game’s over/under hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 44.5.
The Patriots have gained 0.9 units so far and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U mark of 4-3. The Bills are down 2.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-4 ATS and own an O/U record of 2-5.
The Patriots have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AFC East opponents. The Bills are 2-5 SU overall and 0-0 SU against divisional foes.
Buffalo enters this matchup on a zero-game winning streak while New England has lost zero in a row. The Pats look to keep it going after a 38-31 win over Chicago last week where Tom Brady completed 25 passes for 277 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. James White (40 yards on 11 rush attempts) and Kenjon Barner (36 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while White (eight receptions, 57 yards, two TDs) and Chris Hogan (six catches, 63 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
In Week 7, Indianapolis knocked off this Buffalo crew by a score of 37-5. Derek Anderson completed 20-of-31 passes for 175 yards and three interceptions. Chris Ivory (81 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Marcus Murphy (53 yards on four carries) handled the running game as Murphy (five receptions, 17 yards) and Kelvin Benjamin (four catches, 71 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
New England has run the ball on 44.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 48.6 percent. The Patriots have rushed for 121 yards/game (including 175 per game against East opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Bills are totaling 105 rush yards per game (0 in conference) and have four total rushing TDs.
The Pats offensive scheme has logged 268 yards/contest through the air overall (274 per game against conference opposition) and has 16 passing scores so far. The Bills have recorded 156 pass yards per contest (0.0 in the AFC) and have three total pass TDs.
Defensively, New England has allowed opponents to run for an average of 114 yards and pass for 286 yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 224.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 110.7 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Pats have given up an ANY/A of 6.19 to opposing QBs, while the Bills are yielding an ANY/A of 5.93.
Offensively, Brady is up to 1,536 passing yards this year, and has connected on 146-of-215 attempts with 15 scores through the air and seven interceptions. He’s got a 6.67 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.58 over the last two games.
Derek Anderson has completed 20-of-31 passes for 175 yards, zero TDs and three INTs for Buffalo. His ANY/A stands at a terrible 1.00 for the year.
Free NFL Pick: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
SU Winner – Patriots, ATS Winner – Bills, O/U – Under
Team Betting Trends
The Buffalo D has recorded more than double the sack total of New England this year (19 to nine).
Buffalo has lost four fumbles in 2018 while New England has let six get away.
The Patriots offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Bills have accounted for two such plays.
The New England defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Buffalo has given up one such play.
The New England offense has created three rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Buffalo has created four such runs.
Both defenses have allowed five rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Patriots have given up 24 running plays of 10+ yards while the Bills have given up 28 such plays.
The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous match was set at 43.5. The under cashed in that 37-5 loss to Indianapolis.
Over its last three matchups, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
In its last three matchups, New England is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Buffalo has lost four of its last five games SU, with a one-point win over Tennessee on October 7th representing the only victory over that stretch.
The Over/Under for New England’s previous game was set at 49. The over cashed in the team’s 38-31 win over Chicago.
As a team, New England has produced 4.3 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.3 over its last two.
Buffalo has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its past two.
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