The New Mexico State Aggies travel to the desert to open their 2017 NCAA College Football season against the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, Arizona. The match-up is slated to start on Thursday, August 31st at 10:30 p.m. EST. The game will be shown on the PAC-12 Network. Heading into this contest, the Sun Devils are heavy -23.5 point favorites and the contest’s total sits at an outrageous 70.5.
The Aggies continued their streak of mediocrity last year. New Mexico State finished with an overall record of 3-9, including a 2-6 record in the Sun Belt Conference. Once again, New Mexico State’s focus will be on the offense. Last season they were efficient, putting up 24.8 points per game and over 400 yards. That was good enough for third in the Sun Belt.
The Sun Devils’ head coach Todd Grahm is on the hot seat. After a 5-1 start to the season, the wheels completely came off. Arizona State lost their next six games and finished 5-7 on the year. Not only did they fail to capture a victory in the second half of the schedule but the Sun Devil defense surrendered 39.8 points a game. To make matters worse, Arizona State finished 112th in the country, rushing for only 131 yards per match.
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State is entering its final season as a member of the Sun Belt Conference. The Aggies will become an FBS Independent in 2018. The Sun Devils’ head coach Doug Martin has 16 starters back for the finale.
The offense looks to be in good shape, especially if the offensive line can protect their quarterback. The Aggies also sport one of the nations’ top running backs. Starting quarterback Tyler Rodgers will be taking snaps once again for the Aggies. The signal-caller was granted a fifth year of eligibility after missing out on his 2015 season because of injury.
Last year, Tyler Rodgers threw for over 2,600 yards with 16 touchdowns and 12 picks. The fifth year player also scrambled efficiently. Rodgers added another 333 yards and four more trips to the back of the end zone. His 16 to 12 touchdown to interception ratio may not seem that great but it’s quite the improvement from his previous stint under center. In 2014, Rodgers served-up 23 picks.
Even with New Mexico States’ starting quarterback back, the Aggies prefer to hand the ball off to their most productive player. Senior tail back Larry Rose III returned from a sports a hernia and earned Third Team All-American honors. In only nine games, Rose gobbled up 865 yards and four scores.
More importantly, the Aggies will have six of their starting linemen back for this match-up against the Sun Devils. Also, Tyler Rodgers will have his top five receivers back to work with.
None of the five returning receivers totaled more than 400 yards in 2016. That being said, all five caught more than 20 balls and all finished with about 350 yards. Furthermore, every one of his wideouts recorded at least two touchdown catches. It appears Tyler Rodgers isn’t picky about who to throw the ball to.
The forecast for the defense wasn’t so rosy in 2016. The Aggies were repeatedly abused both on the ground and through the air last season. New Mexico State finished 121st in the country allowing 38.8 points a game. They also surrendered just under 500 yards per contest (121st). New Mexico State will have nine starters back to improve upon last year’s numbers.
Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils enter an important campaign under head coach Todd Graham. After going 5-7 and missing out on a bowl game for the first time in five seasons, Graham and the Sun Devils need to rebound quickly. As a result, Arizona State hired a new offensive coordinator and Grahm is letting someone else run the defense. Judging from their defensive performance in 2016, it was a no brainer.
Sun Devils’ quarterback Manny Wilkins will once again lead the offense. Wilkins was inconsistent at best last year. The sophomore threw for over 2,300 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine picks. Like Tyler Rodgers, Wilkins also moved the ball with his feet. Under pressure from opposing offenses, Wilkins scrambled for almost 250 yards and five scores.
Arizona State will have two experienced and capable senior running backs. Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage return to the Sun Devils’ backfield to take hand-offs. Together, the two rushed for over 1,100 yards with 17 trips to pay-dirt. Ballage was especially dangerous in the red zone, capturing 14 touchdowns.
Manny Wilkins has sophomore wide receiver N’Keal Harry back in the fold. As a freshman, he broke the school record for receptions in 2016. Harry caught 58 passes for 659 yards and five touchdowns. Running back Kalen Ballage is also a threat in the passing game. He notched 44 receptions for 469 yards and a score.
Arizona State was the worst tackling team in the country, according to at least one advanced metric. To solve the problem, the Sun Devils will try to simplify their scheme and remain fundamentally sound. Senior Marcus Ball is the lone returning starter in the secondary. The experienced linebacking trio of Christian Sam, D.J. Calhoun, and Koron Crump will also try to help stop the bleeding.
Prediction
Kalen Ballage and company should find plenty of ways to exploit the Aggies porous defense. For that matter, I think both quarterbacks will find success. The offenses will be the story in this one. Obviously, that isn’t a secret. Both teams will need to be on point for four quarters. I don’t trust that that will happen on Thursday.
Instead, put your money on New Mexico State to score enough to cover the 23.5. Yes, the Sun Devils will score but so will the Aggies. It’s hard for me to believe that a new defensive coordinator and a simplified formula will all of a sudden find its footing in week one for Arizona State. If the over hits, so be it. I’m thinking dog and taking the Aggies. Sun Devils 38-23.
Trends
The Aggies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12.
The Aggies are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games.
The Over is 21-5 in Aggies last 26 non-conference games.
The Over is 21-5-1 in Aggies last 27 road games.
The Sun Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
The Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in August.
The Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 games overall.
The Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 home games.
The getmoresports.com NCAA College Football Throwdown Podcast will be returning to the air on August 24th. We will be highlighting the first five games on August 26th of the 2017 NCAA College Football season. That will be the first of three installments leading into the first week of the season. We also we will be covering our expectations for the Heisman Trophy front runners as well as predictions for conference winners and team totals.
Our second NCAA College Football Throwdown is penciled in for August 29th. In that installment, we will be discussing all the games that will be played on August 31st and the 1st of September.
Our third segment will officially be airing on August 31st. In this edition of the NCAA College Football Throwdown, we will be covering all the relevant games for Sept 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
