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New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Free Pick 07/21/18

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees will play host to cross-town rival New York Mets at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and YES Network will be televising this interleague showdown.

New York Mets at New York Yankees Odds

The Mets (+215) are entering this game as the underdog against the Yankees (-235) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 9 runs (+100 for the under and -120 for the over). Gamblers can also bet on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at -105 for the Mets +1.5 runs and -115 for the Yankees -1.5.

The Yankees are 62-34 straight up (SU) and 50-45 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 8.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.2 units (ATS). They have a 3-5 ATS mark over their last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Mets have gone 40-55 SU this year and are 40-53 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 18.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 19.6 units ATS. covered the spread five times in their last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven.

Yankees games have had an over/under record of 41-50-4 so far in 2018. The Mets have also been a decent under bet with a total record of 39-50-4.

Southpaw Steven Matz is projected to start for New York. Matz is 4-7 with a 3.38 ERA and 85 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against the Yankees this year.

The Yankees are putting the ball in the hands of righty Sonny Gray (6-7, 5.46 ERA), who has 85 strikeouts and 39 walks, as well as a 1.51 WHIP. Gray hasn’t faced the Mets yet this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 3.00 ERA and five strikeouts across six innings).

As a unit, the Yankees’ pitching staff has given up 3.8 runs per game overall in 2018. Their starters have a 4.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.73, a WHIP of 1.08 and a K/9 of 11.5.

New York’s offense is putting up 5.2 runs per outing, including 5.4 per game over its last 10 games and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .264/.319/.448 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge have led the Yankees’ offense this year. Stanton is slashing .278/.347/.516 with 23 home runs, 57 RBIs and 58 runs scored, and Judge is batting .281 with 25 homers, 60 RBIs and 67 runs scored.

In the visiting dugout, the Mets’ pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and their starters own a 3.98 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 9.07 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.72, along with a WHIP of 1.28 and a K/9 of 8.58.

Mets hitters have slashed .228/.310/.380 on their way to 3.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

New York’s hitters have been paced by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is hitting .282/.335/.492 with 17 home runs, 53 RBIs and 46 runs scored. Rosario (.242/.286/.374) has produced four homers, 23 RBIs and 33 runs scored.

The Mets have lost 11.9 units and are 29-40 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 29 of those games, compared to 36 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Yankees have netted 13.7 units and are 15-14 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 11 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under.

New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Free Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Yankees, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The over has hit in three of New York’s last seven outings.

The Mets have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.

The Mets have posted 16.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over their last 10 outings and 21.8 over their last five.

The Mets have won three of their last four games SU while the Yankees have dropped three of their last four.

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Written by GMS Previews

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