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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Free Pick 07/06/18

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees will make a road trip to Toronto to square off against their division rival Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. YES Network will broadcast the matchup and the game gets underway at 7:07 p.m. ET.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds

New York (-135) is coming into this one as the favorite over Toronto (+125) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at -110 for the over and -110 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds coming in at Yankees -1.5 runs (+110) and Blue Jays +1.5 runs (-130).

The Blue Jays are 40-46 straight up (SU) and 40-46 against the spread (ATS). The team has lost 6.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 9.8 units (ATS). The Yankees are 56-28 SU and have gone 46-38 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 10.7 units for moneyline bettors and 7.2 units ATS.

Blue Jays games have an over/under record of 40-38-8 so far in 2018. The Yankees have been a decent under bet with a total record of 36-45-3.

Sonny Gray will get the nod for New York. The right-handed Gray is 5-6 with a 5.44 ERA and 73 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with 16 strikeouts and a 3.52 ERA against Toronto this year (three starts).

The Blue Jays are putting the ball in the right hand of Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), who has 45 punchouts and 14 walks this season. Gaviglio is 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in one start against New York this year.

New York’s pitching staff allowed 3.8 runs per game and its starters own a 3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.97 K/9. The bullpen has logged an excellent ERA of just 2.72, along with a K/9 of 11.96.

Yankees hitters have slashed .250/.332/.463 on their way to 5.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge continue to lead New York’s hitters. Stanton is slashing .267/.338/.515 with 21 home runs, 51 RBIs and 51 runs scored, while Judge (.281/.399/.575) has produced 24 homers, 57 RBIs and 61 runs scored.

For the home team, Toronto’s pitching staff has yielded 4.9 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 4.94, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.0. The bullpen has a 4.06 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 32 divisional games, Blue Jays starters have an ERA of 4.57 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.13.

The Toronto hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 3.5 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .210/.277/.364 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Blue Jays’ batters have been led by third baseman Yangervis Solarte and right fielder Kevin Pillar. Solarte is slashing .250/.307/.451 with 16 home runs, 48 RBIs and 41 runs scored, and Pillar’s line sits at .245/.277/.401 with seven homers, 29 RBIs, 38 runs and 10 stolen bases.

The Yankees have lost 0.9 units and are 32-25 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 26 of those games, compared to 30 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have netted 3.9 units and are 25-29 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 27 of those games, compared to 23 that’ve gone under.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Yankees, ATS Winner – Yankees, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The under has cashed in four of New York’s last seven games.

New York has recorded 22.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.8 over its last five.

The Yankees have hit 22 home runs in their last 10 games, including 13 over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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