The Jacksonville Jaguars have not made a lot of smart decisions over the past several years, but in their defense, they have hired a smart, young head coach who seems to be in the process of figuring out how to get his players to play the right way. Also, the Jaguars, while making a lot of terrible moves, have also been very unlucky in a number of situations. For instance, Justin Blackmon, a star receiver when he came out of college at Oklahoma State two years ago, has seen his life unravel into a constant parade of distractions, citations and humiliations. The Jaguars can’t expect to have him on the field this season, but it’s not their fault. How will the franchise deal with all these setbacks and try to get better?
Strengths
The Jaguars’ strength is primarily on the defensive side of the ball. You might remember that the Jaguars were a 26.5-point underdog against the Denver Broncos last season, and the line went up to 27.5 points at one point, making it one of the largest lines in NFL history and a sign of the degree to which the Jaguars were not respected in or by Las Vegas. It’s true that Denver was extremely respected by bettors and betting houses and sportsbooks, but it was just as much a reflection on Jacksonville in a negative way. In that game, a lot of people were expecting Denver to win by 35 or 40 points, but that’s when Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley seemed to get through to a team that had been terrible up to that point in the 2013 NFL season. Jacksonville’s defense played physically and well at all three levels. The Broncos did not move the ball easily for much of the first three quarters. They found a few big plays and were helped by the inability of Jacksonville’s offense to be as consistent as it could be, but the Broncos did not gouge and gash the Jaguars with the smoothness they might have expected when they took the field. Bradley had been Pete Carroll’s defensive coordinator with the Seattle Seahawks. He knew how to get the most from a defensive unit, and beginning with that game against Denver, Bradley seemed to crack the code with his new defense in Jacksonville. The Jaguars won four games in a five-game stretch a few weeks after that Denver game, which began to change the attitude of the team. The hope is that the defense can start the season well and set a positive tone from the very beginning.
Weaknesses
The Jaguars’ offense is the weak half of the team. The Jaguars have been searching for a good quarterback for a very long time. It could be argued that the last really good quarterback for this team was Mark Brunell, over a decade ago. Byron Leftwich might be a debatable choice, but Brunell was almost certainly a lot better. Without a really strong signal caller, it’s hard to give Jacksonville’s offense much of a chance, and it’s therefore hard to express a lot of hope in what the Jaguars are doing or what they can achieve. Recent seasons with Chad Henne and Blaine Gabbert have been predictable disasters. Attendance has been poor in Jacksonville over the past few years, and when Tim Tebow’s future in Denver was doomed by the arrival of Peyton Manning, there was a very good reason why Tebow, a Florida Gator in college, was linked to Jacksonville as a potential landing spot. Maybe Jacksonville wasn’t in position to win games with Tebow, but the organization at least could have sold a lot more seats. This is all because of the vacuum at quarterback and a lack of a strong offensive line. Until the offense gets a massive upgrade, this team will be stuck.
Schedule
The Jaguars do play in the AFC South, which could give them an easier ride than a lot of other NFL teams, but the non-conference schedule is tough. The Jaguars play the NFC East, which is not a great division, but has no terrible teams. Jacksonville also has to play AFC road games out of the division against good teams such as San Diego and Cincinnati. The schedule did this team no favors.
Outlook
The Jaguars are such a mess on offense that they’re going to need real help from a number of their opponents if they’re going to improve on their 4-12 record from last season. Are the Jags going to get that help? It’s not the kind of thing you can be sure of. Bet the under.
Pick: Under 5
