A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. Teams are already starting to separate after two games with some squads already in must-win territory. It’s clear from the line changes that certain teams have already made positive (and negative) impressions on bettors. Here are Week 3’s biggest NFL spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
New York Giants (+6) at Houston Texans
Opening: New York Giants (+3.5) at Houston Texans
The biggest spread move of the week is a bit of a head-scratcher. It’s logical in that the Texans are 0-2 but they’ve had two close road losses, including one to the Patriots. But the Giants have their own strength-of-schedule issues having opened the season against Jacksonville. They also lost each of their games by seven points or fewer. The Texans did win big in both of Deshaun Watson’s home starts in 2017, but that’s hardly a reason for this much of a move. The Giants and Texans have won one regular season game apiece since November, though both teams are healthier now. Bettors must think Watson will make some magic happen in Houston’s home opener.
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Opening: San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
No team has looked as good as the Chiefs thus far. They’re scoring 40 points a game despite playing each of their first two games on the road. Perhaps they’ll be even better in their first game at Arrowhead. When last we saw the 49ers they nearly lost (and some argue should have lost) at home to the Lions, who were playing on a short week after what may have been the worst performance of Week 1. It’s easy to see why bettors jumped on the Chiefs -4.5. If you subscribe to the belief that home-field advantage is worth three points, Kansas City would have been favored by just 1.5 in Santa Clara. That would have been absurd given what we’ve seen so far.
Denver Broncos (+5) at Baltimore Ravens
Opening: Denver Broncos (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
The Broncos are 2-0, but just barely. Not only did they get to play each of their first two games at home, but they won by a combined four points over two winless teams. The Ravens put a beating on the Bills in Week 1 and have one of the best home-field advantages in the league. They’re 48-17 in Baltimore this decade. Early money on the Ravens makes sense, though expect bettors to pound the Broncos if they can get Denver +6.
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Opening: Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks also have a strong reputation at home and this is their opener. The Cowboys have one of the few offenses statistically worse than Seattle’s, so the opening line makes sense. But the Seahawks are coming off a Monday night loss that wasn’t as close as the score indicated while the Cowboys are coming off a Sunday night win. Add in the Cowboys’ status as a public team and it’s no surprise that money is coming in on them.
Chicago Bears (-6) at Arizona Cardinals
Opening: Chicago Bears (-4.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The aforementioned lopsided Seattle loss on Monday night came at the hands of the Bears. The Khalil Mack Revenge Tour has been a sight to behold and the Bears could easily be 2-0 right now if they could have held on to their 20-point lead over the Packers in Week 1. Now they get a Cardinals team that may be the worst in the league. Chicago could be bigger favorites before this one starts as the Cardinals have given bettors few reasons to wager on them, even as home underdogs.
