We’ve reached the end of the month of October in the NFL season. Let’s take a look back at the first two months of action and recap who were the best NFL over/under bets so far this season. Those trends might help us out for betting in coming weeks.
Betting The Over
Green Bay Packers: 7-1 on the over
The Packers have scored 222 points, while allowing 191 on defense. This is a team made for the over, and the numbers reflect that, with seven overs in eight games through the halfway point of the season. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers and a full complement of star receivers, not to mention Eddie Lacy and a strong running game that keeps the balance. Green Bay’s offense is going to continue to be a force in the NFL as long as Rodgers is relatively healthy, something the Packers weren’t able to enjoy last season. Green Bay is also a team that’s injured on defense, and was picked apart by the second team on this list, the New Orleans Saints, Sunday night. Green Bay is going to be a team involved in a lot more shootouts. Take the over with this team as long as it’s not set too high.
New Orleans Saints: 6-1 on the over
The Saints, who just beat the Packers on Sunday, have scored 199 points and allowed 188. New Orleans has gotten itself wrapped up in a number of games in the 30s this season. The opener against Atlanta and another overtime game against Tampa Bay cracked the 30-point mark for both the Saints and their opponent. A 44-23 win over Green Bay was essentially the equivalent of a 37-30 game (67 points). With Drew Brees and the offense heating up, New Orleans is probably going to be able to cover a lot of overs in the second half of the season. Playing outdoors on the road in December could gum up the offense, however. The Saints always play a lot better at home than on the road. Watch out for that complication.
Betting The Under
1. Minnesota Vikings (2-6)
The Vikings show 139 points scored, 173 allowed, to this point in the season. Their offense is just not in a position to do much because the offensive line is weak and can be overpowered by a lot of teams. The Vikings took advantage of a weak Atlanta Falcons defense but won’t usually play weak defenses during the season. Injuries at quarterback have hurt the team, and the controversies involving troubled running back Adrian Peterson have naturally not helped one bit. The Vikings will continue to struggle on offense.
2. Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills (also 2-6)
The Lions have scored 162 points and allowed 126, while the Bills have scored 178 points and allowed 165. Detroit’s 126 points allowed in eight games is an average of just under 16 points per game. That’s the best in the NFL among all teams that have played eight games. The Baltimore Ravens are close behind the Lions, having allowed 131 points in eight games. San Diego, among teams that have played eight games, is third in fewest points allowed with 149.
The Bills are enjoying the benefit of playing in a weak division, the AFC East, but they’ve also held up well against the NFC North, the division the Bills play in their four interconference games this season. The Bills have played three of the four teams in that division, two of them being the Vikings and Lions. Buffalo has played other poor offensive teams this year, which has helped the team in the AFC playoff picture, and in terms of playing a lot of games under the total.
