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NFL Fantasy: Overvalued Quarterbacks

NFL Fantasy

As most fantasy leagues operate with just one quarterback, the position is not too difficult to draft. The biggest challenge when drafting quarterbacks is determining what round to draft whom. The idea is to grab a statistically productive quarterback without sacrificing depth and talent at the other positions. All the QBs on this list could be great and statistically productive in 2017, but where they rank they are overvalued, and it would be a more intelligent fantasy strategy to wait and grab a quarterback later in the draft. Here are five overrated fantasy quarterbacks coming into the 2017 NFL season.

Tom Brady 2nd Ranked Quarterback

New England Patriots

Not to knock Tom Brady, arguably the greatest player in NFL history, but this is the year when he hits the big 4-0, which historically is when quarterbacks begin to show their age. Brady, though, is a wonder of health and production and should be able to stave off father time better than any of his contemporaries. As the second ranked quarterback, he may be just not worth grabbing in the third or fourth round. He was undervalued last season due to the suspension. Now you have to pay a premium. And remember, there is no Julian Edelman (torn ACL) for him this year, which will be a big loss.

Dak Prescott 8th Ranked Quarterback

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott is coming off one of the most impressive rookie seasons in NFL history, and because of that, he is being overvalued coming into 2017. The looming suspension of Ezekiel Elliot, a much harder schedule and a few losses along the offensive line add up and will impact how Prescott and the Cowboys perform in 2017. Prescott should still be a good quarterback for the Cowboys, but the smart move is to let the Dallas fan in your fantasy league draft Prescott a few rounds too early.

Marcus Mariota 10th Ranked Quarterback

Tennessee Titans

Marcus Mariota seems ready to take the jump this season, which means leading a team to the playoffs and not necessarily becoming a real elite fantasy quarterback. The Titans added some offensive weapons for Mariota, and he should see his passing numbers improve in 2017. The problem is the Titans remain a run-first team. In Mariota’s 27 career games, only three times has he thrown 40 or more passes. This lack of passing lowers his fantasy ceiling. Mariota can do some damage with his legs, but removing his 112-yard rushing game brings his career average rush yards per game to just 18.8, which is not terribly impressive.

Ben Roethlisberger 11th Ranked Quarterback

Pittsburgh Steelers

With maybe the best supporting cast of any quarterback in football, Roethlisberger should have another good season. Good is the operative word in that last statement, as Roethlisberger’s days of being a great fantasy quarterback look to be over. Roethlisberger needs to be paired with another quarterback. His home and road splits are like day and night, to the point where he is nearly unplayable on the road. He also regularly misses a game or two every year. Inconsistency and injuries are a fantasy player’s worst enemy. If you want to roll the dice with him, make sure you grab another mid-range quarterback and play the match-ups.

Tyrod Taylor 18th Ranked Quarterback

Buffalo Bills

For the last two seasons, you could make the argument Tyrod Taylor was one of the most underrated players in fantasy football. Now though, with all the shuffling in Buffalo, Taylor is overvalued. The loss of two of his top three targets leaves Buffalo barren in terms of receiving threats. While Taylor has never been one to hurt teams with his passing, averaging around 200 passing yards per game the last two seasons, it becomes much easier to leave a man in the box to spy Taylor when most teams can easily match-up one-on-one against Buffalo’s receivers. This will marginalize Taylor’s ability to rush, which is where he does most of his damage in fantasy. Taylor can still be a bye-week spot starter, but until the Bills can show their offense is fully functional, that’s about it.

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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