NFL Futures: In his third season on the job head coach Ron Rivera broke a five year playoff drought and led the Carolina Panthers to a 12-4 record and the NFC South Division championship. Handicappers and gamblers were pleased with a team that lost just six out of 16 games against the spread in 2013. QB Cam Newton set personal highs and emerged as a leader that the offense can depend on. Best of all Rivera’s defense emerged as one of the most dominant units in the NFL with a pass rush that was tops in the game. And yet all of this success has not made the Panthers a large futures betting favorite as they opened at BetDSI with an over under win total of 8.5 +170 over and -200 under. Carolina was a +4098 choice to win the Super Bowl and was a +2249 choice to win the NFC championship.
Reputation vs. Reality
The handicapping reality of the Panthers is that they have a lot of potential upside but the betting public remains unimpressed as they will continue to flock to proven NFC powers such as Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans. A vulnerable offensive line, questionable secondary, and the loss of their top four receivers from last year are of concern.
Handicapper’s Notebook
Carolina has lost just two out of their last 11 games against the spread at home with just four out of their last 16 home games going over the total. Carolina has covered the spread in 12 out of their last 20 away games with seven out of their last 13 away games going under the total. Carolina has lost just five out of their last 14 games against the spread as a favorite with just six out of their last 18 games as a chalk going over the total. Carolina has covered the spread in 11 out of their last 17 games as a dog with seven out of their last 11 games as a dog going under the total.
Our Prognosis
“Defense wins championships” is the old adage and Carolina has the unit to bring those words to life. Newton has emerged as a solid NFL QB with more improvement and upside still possible. The only question is offensive depth. The Panthers still look like a good board value to us!
