NFL Futures: The Green Bay Packers dropped down to an eight win team for the 2013 season after being a perennial double digit win team for one simple reason: Superstar QB Aaron Rodgers was out half of the season due to injury. That, coupled with a weak defense, proved to be too much for the Packers to overcome. But Rodgers has returned and head coach Mike McCarthy is vowing that the defense will be vastly improved for coordinator Dom Capers. If Rodgers stays healthy and the defense is better the Packers will be among to top bets on the board to win it all. Green Bay opened as a 10/1 choice to win the Super Bowl, a 6/1 choice to win the NFC championship, and with an over under win total of 10.5.
Defense Seasoned with Peppers
Defensive end Julius Peppers arrives from the arch rival Chicago Bears to help bolster a unit that was a major disappointment and liability last year with a ranking of 25th overall and 24th for points allowed. With Rodgers out last year, the Packers ended up using four quarterbacks but it is doubtful that they would have been able to overcome such poor defense, even if Rodgers were healthy.
Handicapper’s Notes
Green Bay has covered the spread in just eight out of their last 19 games on the road with just five out of their last 16 away games going under the total. The Packers have covered the spread in 10 out of their last 14 home games when Rodgers in the lineup as nine out of their last 13 home games have gone under the total. Green Bay has covered the spread in 12 out of their last 17 games as a favorite with ten out of their last 18 games as a chalk going under the total. The Packers have covered the spread in just one out of their last nine games as a dog as eight out of their last 12 games as a pup have gone over the total.
Our Prognosis
The Packers remain one of the premier organizations in sports and we expect a bounce back season as long as Rodgers stays healthy and the defense improves, even just a little bit.
