NFL Futures: In 2012 the Houston Texans concluded their finest season with a 12-4 record, their second consecutive playoff appearance, and were touted as the team to beat entering the 2013 season. No one could have imagined that the Texans would be embarking on a catastrophic disaster in 2013 which saw head coach Gary Kubiak get fired and the team posing a horrific 2-14 record that required a complete off season overhaul of the leadership structure. Bill O’Brien, a longtime assistant to Bill Belichik with the New England Patriots and a successful two year head coach in college football with the Penn State Nittany Lions under difficult circumstances, takes over as head coach of the Texans. Houston opened as a 66/1 favorite to win the Super Bowl and at 28/1 to win the AFC. Houston opened with an over under win total of 7.5 -150 over and +120 under.
Plenty of Upside
Houston could prove to be a classic beaten favorite that has a solid opportunity to bounce back, especially in a weak AFC South Division. The Texans had numerous close losses that could have gone their way last year along with several key injuries.
Handicapper’s Notes
The Houston Texans have covered the spread in just nine out of their last 20 home games and were just 1-7 against the spread at home last year. The Texans went over the total in 12 out of their last 19 home games. The Texans have also been subpar on the road with a mark of just nine payouts in their last 20 away games. Houston has gone over the total in just seven out of their last 19 away games. The Texans have lost 12 out of their last 17 games as a favorite with 11 out of their last 19 games as a chalk going over the total. Houston has lost eight out of their last 12 games against the spread as a dog with five out of their last eight games as a dog going under the total.
Our Prognosis
O’Brien proved he could coach up a team that had gone through considerable adversity with his success at Penn State. Ryan Fitzpatrick arrives to take over as QB with local hero Case Keenum as his understudy. Expect the market to correct and a winning season at Houston!
