NFL Futures: In his first two years as quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, 2012 NFL number one draft Andrew Luck has proven to be a quick study and has paired with head coach Chuck Pagano to post back-to-back 11 win seasons and playoff berths. But beneath the surface there is cause for concern starting with a defense that ranked 20th overall in the NFL last year while ranking 26th against the rush. The Colts also struggled with a rushing offense that ranked 21st overall In the NFL. What that all really means is that too much of the Colts success has been tied to Luck. Indianapolis opened at 7/1 to win the AFC championship and at 16/1 to win the Super Bowl. The Colts opened with an over under win total of 9.5 -130 over and even money under.
Riding Luck Not Enough
Luck improved his QB rating from 76.5 as a rookie to 87.0 last year but the formula of the QB carrying the Colts is not one that can sustain long term success or a Super Bowl title. Improvement is expected on offense but is desperately needed on defense.
Handicapper’s Notes
The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the best values on the NFL betting board when playing at home at Lucas Oil Stadium with 15 payouts against the spread in their last 20 games. The Colts have gone over the total in five out of their last eight games. Indianapolis has paid out in nine out of their last 16 away games against the spread with five out of their last six away games going over the total. The Colts have covered the spread in 11 out of their last 16 games as a favorite with just six out of their last 19 games as a chalk going over the total. They have remained a dangerous and highly valuable dog with a mark of 15-5 against the spread with five out of their last eight games as a dog going over the total.
Our Prognosis
The Colts are fortunate to play in the weak AFC South Division and have developed far more rapidly than what was expected after a 2-14 disaster in 2011. That being said if Houston improves as expected, a repeat run as AFC South champs is not a certainty.
