NFL Picks: The New England Patriots and QB Tom Brady were written off as washed up after their 41-14 Monday Night Football loss at Kansas City on September 29. Since that time they have roared back with four consecutive wins as reports of their demise were obviously premature. They’ll now host the Denver Broncos and QB Peyton Manning, who look like the best team in the NFL. But it’s still the regular season and playoff time is when the annual doubts arise about Denver “Manning Up.”
The Patriots will host the Broncos at Gillette Stadium on Sunday with coverage on CBS starting at 4:25 PM ET. Denver opened as a three point favorite with a total of 55.
Resurgent Pats
New England is 6-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread, and 6-2 over the total after a 51-23 home payout over Chicago. Brady has a 104.7 QB rating with an 18-2 TD-INT ratio. The Patriots rank 10th in the NFL for total offense and 12th for total defense.
Defense Arrives in Denver\
Denver is 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, and 5-2 over the total after a 35-21 home payout over San Diego. The Broncos rank fourth in the NFL For total defense and sixth for total offense. Manning has a QB rating of 119.0 with a 22-3 TD-INT ratio. The element of defense is what has many believing Denver will be “Super” in February.
Matchup and Pick
Denver has been a strong road value lately with 11 payouts in their last 16 away matchups. The Broncos have gone under the total in three out of their last four road games.
New England has been a strong home value however with eight payouts in their last 11 games at Gillette Stadium. The Pats have gone over the total in seven out of their last eight home games.
Denver has won and covered the spread in just two out of their last seven games against the Patriots with four out of the last five meetings between the Patriots and Broncos going over the total. New England has won and paid out in their last four home games against Denver with none of those four games going under the total. We’ll call for New England (+3) and over the total.
