NFL Picks: The Kansas City Chiefs lost a considerable amount of credibility last week in their loss at Oakland against a putrid Raiders team that followed an inspiring home win over the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. The Denver Broncos are losing board value as the defending AFC champions have been in an inconsistent funk for the past month.
In a matchup that could determine the AFC West championship the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night with coverage on NBC starting at 8:30 PM ET. This is a rematch of a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1960 and the founding of the American Football League. Denver opened as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 49.5.
Broncos Busting
Denver is 8-3 straight up, 5-6 against the spread, and 8-3 over the total. The Broncos are coming off a 39-36 home win over Miami but failed to cover as 6.5 point chalks. Denver has failed to cover three out of their last four games. QB Peyton Manning has a 109.5 QB rating with a 34-9 TD-INT ratio. Denver’s defense is wearing down after a strong start and ranks 18th for points allowed.
Pretenders or Contenders?
Kansas City is 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, and 4-7 under the total after their 24-20 loss at Oakland. The Chiefs defense remains a strength ranking third in the NFL for points allowed. The Chiefs rank fifth in the NFL for rushing offense but 31st for the pass.
Matchup and Pick
Denver has been a solid betting value on the road with 12 payouts in their last 19 away games with just seven out of their last 20 away games going under the total.
Although Kansas City has covered four out of their five home games against the spread this year they have been a below par betting value long term at Arrowhead with just eight payouts in their last 18 home games. The Chiefs have gone over the total in five out of their last nine home games.
Denver has had the upper hand in this head to head series with six payouts in their last nine games against the Chiefs. The Broncos and Chiefs have gone over the total in just one out of their last eight meetings. Denver has come away with the cash in four out of their last five visits to Arrowhead against the Chiefs with three out of the last four meetings in KC between the Broncos and Chiefs going under the total.
Denver and under the total is the call.
