NFL Picks: Chip Kelly faced a lot of derision and skepticism when he arrived to coach the Philadelphia Eagles. Kelly ran among the most lethal offenses in the history of college football at Oregon but that was blown off as impossible to translate in the NFL. Kelly continues to prove the critics wrong with the first place team in the NFC East and has his offense near the top in all categories. The Carolina Panthers have suffered a stunning reversal of fortune and production with metrics that indicate more trouble is yet to come.
The Eagles will host the Panthers at Lincoln Financial Field with coverage on ESPN starting at 8:30 PM ET. Philadelphia opened as a six-point favorite with a total of 48.
Kelly Green
Philadelphia is 6-2 straight up, 5-3 against the spread, and 5-3 over the total after a 31-21 payout at Houston. The Eagles offense has NFL rankings of fourth overall, fifth for passing, eighth for rushing, and fourth for scoring. The defense has shown vast improvement to rank 14th for points allowed.
Carolina Blue
Carolina is 3-5-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 5-4 over the total. The Panthers are coming off a 28-10 loss to New Orleans which cost them first place in the NF South. The Panthers were one of the better defensive teams in the NFL last year but this year have slipped to 24th overall and 25th for points allowed. The offense has been even worse ranking 26th overall and 25th for scoring. Quarterback Cam Newton has slumped down to an 81.4 QB rating with an 8-5 TD-INT ratio.
Matchup and Pick
Carolina has been a weak betting value on the road with just two payouts in their last seven away matchups as five out of their last eight road games have gone under the total.
The Eagles have increased their betting value at home under Chip Kelly with just two losses against the spread in their last nine home games. Philadelphia has gone over the total in five out of their last seven home games.
Philadelphia has covered the spread in three out of their last four games against the Panthers with the last three meetings between the Panthers and Eagles going over the total. The Eagles have covered two out of their last three home games against the Panthers with the last two meetings at Lincoln Financial Field between Carolina and Philadelphia going over the total.
The Panthers stunning drop in defense is too much of a concern for us and we’ll call for Philadelphia (-6) and over the total.
