NFL picks: The New England Patriots are coming off a shocking 41-14 Monday Night blowout loss at Kansas City which has called into question their viability as a bona fide AFC title contender. The Cincinnati Bengals are among the top defensive teams in the league that could potentially match up well against the anemic Patriots offense.
The Patriots will host the Bengals at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night with coverage on NBC starting at 8:30 PM ET. After New England opened as a three point favorite, the Bengals are now favored at 1.5 points and a total of 46.
Bengals Resemble Cash Cows
Cincinnati is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread with a 0-3 mark under the total. The Bengals are coming off a bye week that followed a 33-7 home payout over Tennessee. Cincinnati is the top ranked defensive team for points allowed and ranks sixth for scoring offense. Quarterback Andy Dalton has a 95.4 QB rating which shows the worth of his fat new contract singed over the summer. Wide receiver AJ Green is averaging over 19 yards per catch.
Punchless Pats
New England is 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, and 2-2 on totals. The Patriots were exposed as a team in decline in their loss to the Chiefs as their offense has been rendered helpless so far in 2014 with rankings of 29th overall, 30th for passing offense, 23rd for rushing offense, and 24th for scoring offense. Tom Brady is off to an alarmingly bad start with a 79.1 QB rating.
Matchup and Pick
Cincinnati has struggled to maintain board value on the road as of late with just three payouts in their last 10 away games as five out of their last eight away games have gone under the total. The Patriots have been a strong home value as of late with seven payouts in their last nine home games as six out of their last eight home games have gone over the total.
The Patriots have come away with the cash in three out of their last four meetings with Cincinnati as four out of the last six meetings between the Bengals and Patriots have gone over the total. We expect the Patriots to rally to an all-out effort on the Sunday Night stage and get the money. New England (+1.5) is the call.
