The New England Patriots were buried in an avalanche of rumor, suspicion and drama last week, but they silenced that drama by crushing the Cincinnati Bengals. Now they move to Buffalo.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 12th – 1:00 PM ET
Odds: New England (-3)
Why The Patriots Will Cover
They have righted the ship, or at least they showed they could bounce back from one really bad game by playing very well the next week. Things looked gloomy and very concerning for the Patriots following a Monday Night Football no-show against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots trailed 17-0 at halftime and were barely competitive at all in the second half. From the latter part of the third quarter and onward, the game was not in doubt. Tom Brady was benched so that he could sit during garbage time, and the Patriots lost their second game of the young season.
With the unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals coming to Foxborough for Sunday Night Football, New England was viewed as a team in big trouble. However, just as soon as people started worrying about them, the Patriots responded in a big way. New England got off to a strong start with a 14-0 first quarter. It took a 20-3 halftime lead and put the Bengals away, leading 34-10 midway through the third. The Patriots committed no turnovers and took the ball away from the Bengals three times. The Patriots ran 34 more plays and did not allow a single third-down conversion to Cincinnati’s offense. If there was reason to doubt this team, it’s a lot harder to question the Patriots now. This group can be counted on to fix its season when it faces a tough situation.
The Bills also have an offense that New England’s defense should be able to keep under wraps. That should help the Patriots here as their offense does not need to be spectacular, just solid.
Why The Bills Will Cover
They have a defense that can come up with big performances. The Bills are coming off a terrific outing in Detroit against the Lions. Playing in a dome against a dangerous passing offense, an environment in which that passing offense has a great chance to thrive, the Bills’ defense (without linebacker Kiko Alonso) stood tall.
The Lions scored 14 points, but only seven of them were on offense. The Lions took an early 14-0 lead before 20 minutes of game play had come and gone. The notion that the Lions wouldn’t score another point in the remaining 40 minutes of the game was very improbable. Yet, the Bills did exactly that. They didn’t give up the big play, forcing the Lions to attempt three long field goals of over 43 yards, all of which Detroit kicker Alex Henery missed. The Bills put together just enough offense to win, getting one touchdown and a two-point conversion plus three field goals, including a 58-yarder by Dan Carpenter with four seconds left in the game, to pull out a huge win.
If this defense can hold Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford to seven points on the road, this defense can hold the Patriots to 17 points at home. If Buffalo can limit New England to that many points, the Bills’ offense can score 20 and win.
Outlook
If New England plays poorly away from home, as it has done in its first two road games this season, it will be in trouble, but the Patriots seem to have found stability against a team with a limited offense. Take the Pats here.
Pick: Patriots (-3)
