Noticed that NFL games are trending toward shootouts? You’re not the only one. While the feeling in the air has been that the NFL’s rule tweaks over the last decade have led to higher scoring contests, we now have some data to factually back that up – at least from a betting perspective.
The oddsmakers at BetDSI have noted that – if things continue as expected – this week will actually be the first time in NFL history that there isn’t a Week 1 game with an over-under in the 30s.
Although it’s surprising to hear those types of stats coming from oddsmakers, who keep their fingers on the pulse as much as anyone, it really shouldn’t be all that much of a shock to anyone who watches the league. While the NFL was a run-heavy, grind-it-out product in the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a clear-cut emphasis on passing in the last decades or so.
New rules have restricted defenses – especially defensive backs (see: Ty Law Rule) – in terms of what they can and can’t do to receivers before and after they’ve caught the football. And then there are the “Tom Brady Rules,” which limit defenders in how, where and when they can hit quarterbacks. All of this has led to an easier time for offenses and a more difficult time for defenses, and the oddsmakers’ numbers prove exactly that.
NFL Week 1 Average Totals (Over/Under) Since 2002
2018: 45.81 (current Week 1 odds from BetDSI)
2017: 45.67
2016: 45.06
2015: 45.41
2014: 45.69
2013: 45.59
2012: 44.03
2011: 41.40
2010: 42.25
2009: 42.66
2008: 41.06
2007: 40.94
2006: 39.72
2005: 42.28
2004: 42.03
2003: 41.97
2002: 39.63
As you can see, we have a clear trend where the average total for Week 1 has continued to rise. The Ty Law Rule, which makes it illegal to contact a receiver beyond five yards of the line of scrimmage, was implemented after the 2003 season. Although we have seen a couple of aberrations – 2006 and 2007 – we have generally seen the numbers climb every season.
If the totals hold (as is expected), this will not only be the first Week 1 without a game in the 30s, it will also be the first time we’ve had an opening week with a totals average this high (45.67 was previous mark). The only game that could possibly get into the 30s right now would be the Buffalo Bills-Baltimore Ravens game, which sits at 40.5, which has dropped from the opening of 42.5. Something drastic would have to happen for it to move another full point.
Taking a look at the board, there are number of big over-unders for Week 1 – even though offenses sometimes take a little while to get things going early in the season. The Houston Texans-New England Patriots game leads the way with a total of 51, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints game is next at 49.5. And keep in mind that would probably be higher if Jameis Winston wasn’t suspended. The Los Angeles Rams-Oakland Raiders game is also currently at 49.5 while overall, 10 of the 16 games are at 45 or higher.
