The fourth week of the preseason is a time when teams rest nearly all of their starters. That may turn off some, but the savvy bettor knows this is the time to make some real money. Most of the NFL betting odds that sportsbooks put out this week will have little thought behind them because of the short week and the absence of starters. That will give a boost to teams with depth and key roster spots still to be determined.
NFL Preseason Week 4 Betting Odds (Courtesy of BetDSI)
Arizona Cardinals -3
Denver Broncos +3
Total 35
Denver Broncos
On Monday, head coach Vance Joseph announced that Chad Kelly will start the final preseason game for Denver. That wasn’t really surprising given that Kelly has outplayed Paxton Lynch during the preseason. Joseph has indicated that Kelly will play the first half, while Lynch plays the second half, and starter Case Keenum will sit out this one in advance of the season.
Kelly has a quarterback rating of 107.8 in three preseason games so far and has looked very sharp each time he has taken the field. The talent was always there with Kelly, but there were concerns about off-the-field issues and the mental aspect of his game. He seems to have matured, and it has showed in his play.
Joseph is not going to take any risks with regards to his starters. He has told the media that he will sit all 22 of his projected starters, as well as any players that are banged up, for this game against the Cardinals.
Arizona Cardinals
The preseason storyline for Arizona has been an incredibly opportunistic defense. The Cardinals have forced 16 turnovers through three games, and that has led to Arizona going 3-0 against the spread so far. Arizona forced eight turnovers in a 27-3 rout over Dallas last weekend, and a lot of people are going to be jumping on the Cardinals after those performances.
However, it’s important to note how the Cardinals got those turnovers. While advanced metrics show that there is something to interceptions, fumbles and fumble recoveries are mostly dumb luck. Of the 16 turnovers Arizona has forced, 10 of those have come from fumbles. That is an impossible pace to keep up.
Rookie head coach Steve Wilks has given no indication as to what his plan will be with regard to his quarterbacks on Thursday. However, it seems unlikely that Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen will see much, if any, action given that Bradford is the projected starter and Rosen sat out Sunday’s game against the Cowboys due to an injured thumb. Mike Glennon is likely to play a lion’s share of the snaps as a result, with soon to be cut Chad Kanoff possibly seeing some action as well.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals Week 4 Betting Prediction
Wilks might be a little gun shy in this one given the Cardinals injuries. DJ Foster tore his ACL and MCL in the win over Dallas on Sunday, and after star running back David Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in 2017, he is unlikely to take any chances.
There is a considerable amount of value in Denver here. Homefield advantage is relatively meaningless in the preseason, and Kelly has lit it up so far. I think the NFL odds should have this game as a pick ‘em, so I’ll give up the three points and back the Broncos on the moneyline.
