The NFL season has maintained the status quo in certain ways, such as upholding the primacy of the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams, but it has taken some surprising turns as well, and these four games below represent many of these unexpected occurrences for various teams in the league. Here is our NFL Week 14 Parlay.
The Favorite
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Odds: Titans -4.5
The idea that the Jaguars would be an underdog at this point in the season seemed laughable back in September. The Jaguars were coming off an AFC Championship Game appearance last season. They soundly defeated the New England Patriots early this season and were supposed to be ready to make another run at a championship. However, their offense has disintegrated, players have gotten in trouble with the law, the locker room has been torn apart and late leads have been blown. The Jaguars did beat the Indianapolis Colts this past week, but they scored only six points. The Titans are hardly a model of offensive consistency – they are 11th in the AFC in points scored right now – but the Jaguars are 13th. Tennessee is 4-1 at home, and Jacksonville is 1-4 in road games. The Titans represent a clear and wise selection here.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | NFL Parlays
Pick: Titans -4.5
The Underdog
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Odds: Texans -4.5
The Texans are on a nine-game winning streak after losing their first three games. They have a real chance of getting a first-round bye in the playoffs. They are gradually becoming more and more of a surprise Super Bowl contender – no one expected this at the start of the season.
So why pick the Colts, who were just shut out by Jacksonville this past weekend? Indianapolis, even after getting shut out, is still fifth in the AFC in points scored. Andrew Luck has had a great second half of the season and the Jacksonville nightmare seems to be an outlier more than an indicator.
In the last game between these two teams, the score was tied late in overtime and Indianapolis coach Frank Reich made a fourth-down gamble because he didn’t want to settle for a tie. He chose a low-percentage attempt at winning the game. The attempt failed, Houston scored and won. The memory of that game is bitter for the Colts, and it is worth noting that Luck has been a much better player since that game, with the exception of this past week in Jacksonville.
It seems hard to think that Houston will win 13 in a row to close the season. A bad game could soon occur, and Indianapolis is desperately fighting for its playoff life, having already shown it can play the Texans fairly evenly. This is a good spot to pick the underdog.
Pick: Colts +4.5
The Total
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: 57.5
The Saints and Bucs scored way, way more than 58 points in their season opener. True, the Bucs have become a much worse team since then, but the Saints have become better. New Orleans played one of its two worst offensive games of the season last Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys. The Buccaneers are not the kind of team whose defense figures to offer substantial opposition to the Saints, however. This looks like a good bounce-back opportunity for New Orleans.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s offense doesn’t have to be great to push this game over the number if New Orleans scores 35 to 38 points. The Bucs would just need to be decent, which is exactly what they were last week in a 24-17 win over the Carolina Panthers. This game is so much more likely to over than under.
Pick: Over 57.5
The Point Spread
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Odds: Broncos -6
The Broncos did beat the Cincinnati Bengals on a day when Andy Dalton was out of the lineup, but what also happened midway through that game this past weekend is that A.J. Green, Cincinnati’s star receiver, got hurt. The Broncos were playing a team which was operating with a double handicap. The 49ers aren’t playing with a set of elite players, but their quarterback injury (Jimmy Garoppolo) occurred much earlier in the season. The Niners have had a chance to adjust, unlike the Bengals. Denver has not always taken care of business against mediocre quarterbacks this season. The Broncos lost to Sam Darnold of the New York Jets and Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens. Denver might win here, but the Broncos have generally not taken the easy path this season. San Francisco plus the points at home is a perfectly reasonable pick.
Pick: 49ers +6
