Before we roll on to Week Nine of the NFL season, it’s incumbent upon us to focus on what’s really important. Yes, of course, I’m talking about how I’m doing with my NFL picks.
Here’s where we are after eight weeks of football.
This week
Straight up: 9-4
Against the spread: 8-5
Last week
Straight up: 12-3
Against the spread: 7-8
Season
Straight up: 69-50
Against the spread: 58-61
My best pick? I have a couple I’m pretty pleased with, but the winner this week was the Seattle Seahawks and the Houston Texans. That spread was outrageous at -6.5 and I knew Deshaun Watson would make any perceived advantage Seattle had on defense disappear. It helps that the Seahawks are living more on reputation now than actual performance.
I had a great pick against the spread with the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons. If the Jets had just held on late in the fourth, I would have hit it on both.
My worst pick isn’t what you think. Sure, the Baltimore Ravens beat the shit out of the Miami Dolphins, but there were plenty of wild cards to handwave on that one. No, my worst pick was thinking Anthony Lynn could win four games in a row and beat the New England Patriots. If you’ll remember from my preview and pick, I fretted over this one at the time. It looked good on paper, but expecting Lynn to have his team prepared to play in a game of that magnitude was just foolish on my part.
And before I move on, let me just tell the Buffalo Bills that they’ve convinced me now. I believe it, even if it makes no sense to me. You’re good and we’re all just going to have to deal with it.
EARLY NFL WEEK NINE LINES
Thursday
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3.5), O/U: 42.5
Sunday
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5), O/U: 43.5
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-13), O/U: 49.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5), O/U: 39.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-7), O/U: 50.0
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5), O/U: 42.0
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-8), O/U: 43.5
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-5.5), O/U: N/A
Sunday Late
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+2), O/U: 39.5
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5), O/U: 45.0
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (+1), O/U: 51.5
Sunday Night
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+3), O/U: 44.0
Monday Night
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2.5), O/U: 43.0
First off, that opening Colts – Texans line is massive and tells you everything you need to know about how the sportsbooks see Deshawn Watson at this point. Indianapolis did move the ball and score points last week, so this one will bear watching before I make my final pick. The Titans – Ravens -5.5 is intriguing. If you’ve done the math, you know that a victory for Tennessee here would give head coach Mike Mularkey three in a row. As I’ve told you before, that’s never happened at any point in his coaching career. Is this the game to beat the jinx?
The 49ers won’t see any benefit from the trade for Jimmy Garoppolo in this game, but this remains one of their best chances for a win. Drew Stanton will be taking the field for a Cardinals squad just hoping to hit the sim button on the season. I think that Seattle -7.5 over the Redskins looks crazy high, especially with the way the Seahawks’ defense has been playing lately. Don’t be surprised to see that Dolphins – Raiders line move up after today when the books realize Miami will have no way to move the ball with Jay Ajayi playing in Philadelphia now.
Finally, that Lions – Packers +2.5 seems awful generous for Green Bay after last week’s performance. It’s giving a lot of respect to the Packers’ defense too, which I’m not sure is deserved.
NFL WEEK EIGHT KEY INJURIES
As bad as Zach Miller’s injury looked when he was taken off the field for the Chicago Bears Sunday, it got a hell of a lot worse once he got to the hospital.
It turns out not only had he dislocated his leg, he’d ruptured an artery and could have lost his leg. After Emergency surgery, Miller is fine, but it was a scary moment for the 33 year old tight end.
“Zach means a lot to this team beyond the X’s and O’s and what he brings to the field but what he brings to us as a person,” quarterback Mitchell Trubisky told reporters. “Specifically how much he has helped me grow in this process. You never want to see a teammate go down like that.”
Miller’s injury, likely season ending because, come on, will open up opportunities for Dion Sims and especially rookie Adam Shaheen. Sims was a fourth round pick by the Bears in 2013. Shaheen’s played in all eight games and started six, catching nine passes for 113 yards and a touchdown.
Shaheen was a second round pick out of Ashland this past April. He’s started four games, played in all eight has just one catch for two yards and a touchdown.
Miller wasn’t the only Chicago starter to not finish the game, Guard Kyle Long injured his hand and center Cody Whitehair hurt his elbow. Neither man’s status for next week has been released.
The only surprise about Jimmie Ward’s season ending injury for the 49ers is that it took this long for it to happen. Ward will go on injured reserve with a broken forearm suffered against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Ward seemingly spends every season on IR, so this is just a normal even for him. He’ll have some company this time. Offensive tackle Garry Gilliam gets to IR thanks to a knee injury. The ugliest injury belonged to left tackle Joe Staley who fractured his orbital bone in his face. He won’t return until at least Week 11.
New England Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan will miss a while after injuring his shoulder against the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday. The good news is that Hogan won’t need need surgery. According to NFL.com, the Patriots will evaluate him again after their bye week.
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