NHL Playoff Predictions: April 21st

There are two critical games on tap for tonight. Let’s take a look at our NHL playoff predictions.

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals: The Washington Capitals finally played as one would expect the Washington Capitals to play in their Game 4 victory in Toronto. And even then, it still was not their best effort.

T.J. Oshie got the Caps on the board early in the first period with his first of the series. Alex Ovechkin would add his third of the series on the powerplay minutes later. Tom Wilson had a pair of goals himself to pull even with Ovechkin in goals (because playoffs!). Washington would hold a 4-1 lead by the time the first period ended.

Through two periods, the Capitals had out-attempted Toronto 44-24 at even strength. They lived inside the hashmarks.

Things shifted in the third period. Within four seconds of gametime in the waning moments of the second, Lars Eller was called for delay of game and Brooks Orpik was called for a slash, giving the Maple Leafs 1:54 of a 5-on-3 to start the final frame.

Though they did not convert, the Leafs got five shots on goal during the two-man advantage. Auston Matthews would score to make it 4-3 in the third, but Oshie would answer seconds later.

A last minute half-own-goal-half-tip-in by Brooks Orpik and Tyler Bozak made it 5-4, which wound up being the final.

Toronto out-attempted Washington 21-8 in the final frame. Shots on goal were 19-3 in the period.

While it was not their cleanest 60 minute effort, at least the Washington Capitals were finally able to flex their muscles. They won the President’s Trophy for a reason, after all. Alex Ovechkin helped lead the top line to three goals and two assists combined.

Nick Backstrom registered his 45th career playoff assist, passing Scott Stevens on the all-time Capitals list. Only former coach Dale Hunter has more with 47.

If nothing else, however, the Maple Leafs should still have their confidence. They have been getting to Braden Holtby at an unprecedented rate. Holtby has the best save percentage of any goaltender in the postseason since they started tracking the stat. But he has allowed 15 goals in these four games.

The Noon Number: 7. Find out why it’s significant… (Hint: Hole-y Holtby?) #Caps https://t.co/McmOBqyQkO pic.twitter.com/yMtC8nhEcy

— Japers' Rink (@JapersRink) April 20, 2017

The Leafs have zero quit in them. To criminally underrate them with such a slanted line is a fun dare. But from here on out with the Caps holding home ice in a best of three scenario, I still would air on the side of caution and go with the home team.

A series-deciding Game 6 in Toronto would be bedlam. Washington will want to wrap things up tonight. To do so, they will need to copy and paste their gameplan from the previous game. Come out firing and attack the low slot. Just stay disciplined and don’t shell in the third.

As Matt Niskanen said today, “If all you’re doing is defending, you’re not going to defend very well.”

Prediction: Take the Caps to win tonight. Play the under.

Bruins vs Senators: Boston is considered to be the favorite tonight despite being on the road facing a 3-1 series deficit. Their season is on the line tonight, and yet they are listed as a -130. Why?

Well, mostly because of how tightly this series has been played. Each game has been decided by one goal with two of the four heading into extra time. The Bruins played well enough at home to win but came away empty handed in both matchups.

But let’s face facts. They are still without Torey Krug, Brandon Carlo and Adam McQuaid, David Krejci is still obviously feeling the lingering effects of his injury and now Frank Vatrano was spotted leaving the TD Garden after Game 4 wearing a walking boot. The team is a collection of walking wounded.

UPDATE: Add Ryan Spooner to the list of those out of commission, as he is being removed from the Game 5 lineup.

Looking like Ryan Spooner might be getting scratched for Game 5. Sean Kuraly centering Vatrano and Schaller

— Joe Haggerty (@HackswithHaggs) April 21, 2017

Boston’s offense has been neutered by their lack of puck-moving defensemen on the blueline. Don’t misunderstand me, Charlie McAvoy is playing about as well as anyone in his situation could. He chews big minutes, skates with the top powerplay unit and looks surprisingly poised. But there is no replacing Krug. Having defensemen who spread the puck at all strengths opens up space for the forwards, who have been smothered to this point.

Charlie McAvoy’s goal was disallowed due to offsides, which proved to be the difference in Game 4.

Craig Anderson took a major step forward in Game 4. While he was not terrible in the first three games of the series, he made a myriad of mistakes that simply cannot be made come postseason time. An .898 save percentage simply won’t cut it this time of year. But Anderson stopped all 22 shots thrown his way in Game 5 to shut out the Bruins and bring a potential series-deciding game home to Ottawa.

The road team has won three of the four games this series and five of the last six overall in the Sens-Bruins lineage.

Anderson will get the praise for his shutout, but this series should prove to be the moment Erik Karlsson definitively silences his doubters. For years, we have been putting up with the nonsensical notion that Erik Karlsson is a lesser defenseman because he puts up big points, and all offensive defensemen struggle in their own zone, right? But he has dominated this series in every imaginable way. His skating ability is reminiscent of Brian Leetch. He’s that good. He has five assists this series, logging 24-30 minutes a night.

Bobby Ryan netted his third goal of the series and his second game-winner in the third period of Game 4. While I’m not a huge fan of Ryan’s, he has been a key factor for the Senators this series. It’s taken a while but he’s finally been a big-time player for Ottawa.

Prediction: I love me a home underdog, especially with a series on the line. Take the Sens to win. Play the under.

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