NHL Playoff Predictions: May 4th

We have but one game on the docket tonight. The New York Rangers look to even up their series against the Ottawa Senators on home ice tonight. Let’s take a look at our NHL playoff predictions.

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

The New York Rangers got on the board in commanding fashion Tuesday night with a 4-1 victory over the Ottawa Senators at Madison Square Garden. It was the first time this postseason that the Ottawa Senators had a game decided by more than one goal.

From the get-go, this was the New York Rangers’ game to lose. Though NBC said that the Ottawa Senators had five shots on goal in the first period, it certainly did not seem like it was that many. Henrik Lundqvist had perhaps the easiest 20 minute stretch that he has faced all postseason in the opening frame.

That’s because the team in front of him was doing work. Five and half minutes into play, Mika Zibanejad muscled his way into the Ottawa zone. Wrapping around the Sens’ net, he found Mats Zuccarello in the low slot who snuck a one-timer past the blocker of Craig Anderson.

Later in the first period, Zibanejad and Zuccarello would again enter the offensive zone with Zibanejad maneuvering his way to the net. After fumbling with the puck, Zuccarello wrapped it around the boards to Michael Grabner waiting behind the net. Craig Anderson went on yet another puck-handling adventure, leaving his crease and abandoning the net. Grabner fielded the puck cleanly and stuffed in the wraparound in the empty net.

Craig Anderson has had about as bad a puck-handling postseason as a goaltender could possibly have. How is that possible when playing a series against Henrik Lundqvist? And lest we forget the many misadventures of Marc-Andre Fleury? Between the Boston series and this one, Anderson should probably be tied to the goalposts like Goldberg from The Mighty Ducks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgFZJ8v9Rdo

As time elapsed in the second period and the Senators began to get a few more shots to the net, it became increasingly clear that the third goal of the game may prove to be the most important. The Rangers led a breakout from their own zone as Jimmy Vesey led a motoring Derek Stepan. Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone took each other out by their own bench which opened up a 2-on-1 for New York. Stepan slid the puck over the Rick Nash who picked a spot and sniped it.

The Rangers would tack on a fourth goal when a Tanner Glass takeaway in the defensive zone allowed J.T. Miller to streak ahead with the puck. Miller faked Dion Phaneuf out of his skates (also Glass kinda slew-footed him but it was a nice move regardless), charged to the net and found a wide-open Oscar Lindberg.

"Oh man, this goal was all because of Tanner Glass"- Pierre says as JT Miller singlehandedly assists Lindberg's goal https://t.co/Gy7ksuZDHr

— 🇺🇸 (@BuchnevichHC) May 3, 2017

The Sens would get one back in the waning moments of the second period thanks to their golden boy Jean-Gabriel Pageau. But an uneventful third period meant that the Rangers would walk away with their first victory of the series.

It’s easy to say that when a team turns in a clunker of a game like Ottawa did on Tuesday that it’s because they looked “flat” or that their “will” wasn’t there, among other platitudes. The fact is that the Rangers simply made defensive adjustments to make Ottawa’s life harder. Imagine, playing Brady Skjei and Brendan Smith more and Marc Staal and Nick Holden less had a beneficial effect on the score and opposing shot quality. Craziness.

The Senators simply had too much trouble getting to the inside of the zone. They were forced into a lot of long-distance or clear-sighted shots. The few high-danger areas they did find were usually clogged with diving defensemen. Brendan Smith led the Rangers with three blocked shots, two coming on the same penalty kill shift.

Ottawa also ran into some injury trouble. A high hit forced Zack Smith to leave the game early, and Bobby Ryan also headed to the tunnel with an apparent thigh injury. Though Ryan is expected to play in Game 4, Smith is listed as doubtful.

Ryan had a magnificent assist on Pageau’s goal in Game 4.

Ryan and Pageau connect to get the #Sens on the board. #ALLIN pic.twitter.com/LKCbQ9WjmL

— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) May 3, 2017

By the way, Alain Vigneault’s plan to “put a checker on their checker?” Well, Pageau still scored with Glass in the lineup. Does that mean Pavel Buchnevich can play again now?

It’s difficult to pin down where specifically the Ottawa Senators need to improve in order to get one back at Madison Square Garden tonight. They were beaten so handily and it was entirely due to either their own mental miscues or late adaption to a more tenacious forecheck. In essence, they need to play quicker and play smarter.

The last two Ranger goals resulted because defensemen lost their footing by either their own man or a passing skate. Not to say the Rangers got lucky, merely that they capitalized on what was handed to them on a silver platter.

Not much needs to change in the Rangers’ camp. They were aggressive in the attacking zone pressuring the puck carrier and forced a lot of turnovers or less-than-ideal zone exits. The Senators are going to make adjustments, but maintaining that pressure is still going to be key.

Chris Wideman will likely replace Ben Harpur on the bottom pairing tonight. Wideman has been a healthy scratch after a couple of bad games late in the Boston series, but he was a dependable blueliner in the regular season. He had 17 points in 76 games.

Tom Pyatt is also expected to return to the Ottawa lineup, coming in for the injured Zack Smith. Pyatt had 23 points in 82 regular season games.

The home team has now won the last five meetings between these two teams. The Blueshirts have reversed the narrative that they can’t win at home having turned in three consecutive solid performances in Manhattan. It will take another spirited effort to even up the series tonight.

It’s not a slam-dunk as the line indicates, but it is a strong possibility.

Prediction: Take the Rangers to win tonight. Play the under.

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