It’s that time of year again. A time to ready your sportsbook for some postseason predictions.
It’s the Stanley Cup Playoffs. It’s the time to grow god-awful facial hair. It’s the time to irrationally get incredibly superstitious. It’s the time to never leave the edge of your seat and sweat through your jersey.
Because it’s the Cup.
Over/unders are going to be relatively low, as well they should be. Scoring is especially hard to come by in the playoffs, especially in the new format where the first round is a lot more tightly contested. So until the overall feel of these series are established, the safe play for the day in all three games is the under.
Let’s take a look around the NHL playoffs at the top picks, plays and predictions.
April 13th, 2016 – NHL Schedule
Red Wings vs Lightning
ML +136 / -150
O/U 5
Rangers vs Penguins
ML +127 / -140
O/U 5
Blackhawks vs Blues
ML +119 / -131
O/U 5
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
(#3) Red Wings vs (#2) Lightning: The Atlantic Division did not take shape until the very last day of the season. The Red Wings lucked out. They lost 3-2 in New York against a Rangers team that sat several of their starters, but were bailed out by the fact that the Bruins wet the bed against the Ottawa Senators that same afternoon.
Despite the fact that he lost his last two starts of the season, allowing seven goals in the process, Jimmy Howard has been announced as the Red Wings’ starting goaltender for Game 1. Howard went on a nice stretch down the line, winning four starts in a row as March turned to April. It does not change the fact that he has had a horrid year on the whole. He is 14-14-5 with a 2.80 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage. Yes, anything can happen in the playoffs, but the hot-hand fallacy need not apply here.
Petr Mrazek went 5-5-1 in his last 11 decisions to Howard’s 6-5-0. He was allowing plenty more goals than typical for the year, but I find it incredible that a man who was receiving attention in consideration for the Vezina Trophy as last as February is suddenly a backup for the playoffs. Call me old-fashioned, but I believe in dancing with the date that brought me, as the adage goes.
Tampa will be without Anton Stralman and Steven Stamkos tonight, which is no surprise.
Prediction: Their last encounter was a 6-2 meltdown where the Lightning emerged victorious. Playoff hockey is always tighter, but I see the Bolts staking claim to home ice tonight. Take the Bolts to win. Play the under.
(#3) Rangers vs (#2) Penguins: This will be the third consecutive year that the Rangers and Penguins meet in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Penguins held home-ice advantage in 2014. They lost Game 1 in overtime, then proceeded to take the next three. It was not until the Rangers rallied around their grieving teammate Martin St. Louis that the Rangers looked to have much life in the series.
Last year, the Penguins were ice-cold entering the postseason and dinged up to boot. Their offense was anemic, their coach was on the hot seat and their blueline was missing major players. Flash-forward to now: they are red-hot entering the postseason, their coach is in Jack Adams talks and they look to be almost back to full-strength as Marc-Andre Fleury appears poised to make a return tonight. The only key cogs missing are Evgeni Malkin and Beau Bennett.
Henrik Lundqvist will start tonight, though he left practice early the other day after feeling “ill.” Dan Girardi and Eric Staal are in the lineup after leaving games early. Ryan McDonagh is out tonight.
Prediction: The Pens are 3-1 against the Blueshirts this season and should be very confident heading into tonight. Take Pittsburgh to win. Play the under.
(#3) Blackhawks vs (#2) Blues: This could very well be the most entertaining series of the entire playoffs. It could conceivably pass as the Western Conference Final. The season series was 3-2 in favor of the Blues, with all three of those victories coming either in overtime or the shootout.
Chicago ended their season 5-1-2. St. Louis won eight of their last 10, with Brian Elliott putting together one of the best stretches by a goaltender all season. Ells went 12-1-1 in his final 14 decisions.
Last season was a disappointing early exit for the Blues, who bowed out in the first round to the Wild. Jake Allen had a disappointing postseason. This year there is certainly reason for optimism. This will be Brian Elliott’s first real crack as the true number one starter. It will be plenty fun to watch.
An important note for tonight’s game: Duncan Keith will be out of the lineup, finishing up his six-game suspension. That’s a major advantage for St. Louis, who have an opportunity to ramp up the pressure on Chicago early.
Prediction: Take the Blues to take an early series lead. Play the over.
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Casey is GetMoreSports' resident hockey fanatic and host of "Jersey Corner" on the GMS YouTube channel. He is the play-by-play voice of Marist College Hockey and the New York AppleCore. He currently works as a traffic coordinator for MSG Networks. Steve Valiquette once held a bathroom door for him.
