Nikola Jokic will play in his first All-Star game next weekend as the Nuggets’ first selection since Carmelo Anthony in 2011. The Nuggets have three games before that, starting with a trip to Philadelphia on Friday night. The game will already have extra attention due to the potential Philadelphia debut for the recently acquired Tobias Harris, but it is also a matchup between two likely playoff teams. Those looking to pick up a rooting interest can take part in this Nikola Jokic over/under prop bet.
Nikola Jokic: Total points and rebounds vs. the 76ers
Over/Under: 30
Over
Jokic just faced the 76ers on January 26. He scored 32 points and picked up 18 rebounds, going over by a significant margin. Sixty percent of that performance would get him to 30 in Philadelphia.
In five career games vs the 76ers, Jokic is averaging 21.6 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. He averages more points against the 76ers than every team except Indiana. The 76ers are also one of eight teams against whom Jokic averages at least 10 rebounds per game.
Jokic has destroyed the Atlantic Division this season. In six games against those teams, he’s averaging 24.2 points and 14 rebounds per game. Those are his highest averages against any division by a significant margin.
The 76ers have one of the worst defenses in the league. They allow 112.1 points per game, which ranks 21st. They’re coming off back-to-back losses to the Kings and Raptors in which they allowed 115 and 119, respectively.
Under
Jokic hasn’t made a habit of 30 combined points and rebounds. In 52 games this season, he went over half the time (26 games). He went under 25 times and pushed once.
Though Jokic dominated the 76ers in their first meeting, that game was in Denver. His numbers haven’t been quite as impressive on the road. He averages 18.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game on the road (21.7 and 11.3, respectively, at home). He has failed to exceed 30 combined points and rebounds in three of his last four road games, including Denver’s two most recent games.
Jokic did not play in two of Denver’s last three games in Philadelphia. The game he did play came on March 26 of last year. He had 14 points and seven rebounds.
The Bet
Over. Though Jokic has struggled on the road, his historic ownership of the Atlantic Division puts him in position to have another big game. The Nuggets had one road game against an Atlantic team this year, which came in Toronto on December 3. Jokic put up 23 points and 15 rebounds in that game — perhaps his domination of that division supersedes his relative lack of production outside of Denver.
The addition of Harris adds an element of randomness since it’s unclear to what extent he’ll affect the game. Though he ought to make the 76ers better overall, it’s not at all uncommon for teams to have growing pains when they add a new starter. Let’s assume Philadelphia’s defense continues to give up plenty of points until we see otherwise.
