The defending World Series champions, Chicago Cubs, are facing off against the Washington Nationals in what should be a very interesting National League Division Series. The Cubs finished the season with a 92-70 (.568) record while the Nationals finished in second-place with a 97-65 record. Both clubs have solid rotations, batting lineups, and bullpens, which should make for a thrilling series to watch. Let’s take a look at the series preview.
Why The Cubs Might Win The Series
After last year’s rollercoaster game 7 win over the Indians, the Cubs know they have the talent and experience to win it all again. However, the Cubs’ starters have seen their performances this season drop when compared to last year. Here are the four starters that the Cubs will roll out along with their season stats.
Jose Quintana: 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 0.29:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.10 HR/9 rate
Jake Arrieta: 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 0.34:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.23 HR/9 rate
Kyle Hendricks: 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.33:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.10 HR/9 rate
Jon Lester: 13-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 0.33:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.30 HR/9 rate
While the numbers of the Cubs’ starters above are solid, they’re nowhere near elite. Similarly, the Cubs’ offense has also stalled in comparison to last season when they were just unstoppable. Kris Bryant, last year’s NL MVP, led the team this season with a .295 AVG, .409 OBP, and .537 SLG – all down from his 2016 numbers. Anthony Rizzo rounds things off by leading the Cubs with 32 HR and 109 RBI. However, the Cubs boast the necessary talent and experience and in a five-game series considering how hot the Cubs have been after the All-Star break, no one would be surprised if they pulled off the upset.
Why The Nationals Might Win The Series
The Nationals just haven’t been able to get over the hump in the last few seasons, and a big reason was their bullpen. However, this year, they’ve bolstered their bullpen with hopes that this won’t be their Achilles’ heel this time around. The Nationals boast one of the best rotations – here are their stats, starting with Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer.
Max Scherzer: 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 0.90 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 0.21:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.99 HR/9 rate
Stephen Strasburg: 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 0.23:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.67 HR/9 rate
Gio Gonzalez: 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 0.42:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.94 HR/9 rate
Tanner Roark: 13-11 with a 4.67 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 0.39:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.14 HR/9 rate
Scherzer and Strasburg could arguably be the aces for almost every team in the MLB, providing the Nationals with a deadly one-two punch. Furthermore, the Nationals offense has been pretty good this year even though Bryce Harper was forced to miss parts of the season due to injury. Daniel Murphy led the team with a .322 AVG while Ryan Zimmerman led the team with a .573 SLG, 36 HR, and 108 RBI – he seems to be back to the elite Zimmerman. The Nationals’ OBP leader was Anthony Rendon at .403. The Nationals have shown that they can hang with the best teams all year long and now, it’s only a matter of execution.
Outlook
It really seems like this year is finally the Nationals’ year to break out. The Cubs haven’t been the best team all year long, with the exception of their second-half performance, which you could make a case for. Maybe they do head into the playoffs with momentum and regain that sharpness that they showed in the playoffs last year. While I do believe that the Nationals should be favored, I’m not sure if I’ll be willing to lay down -140 for them to win the series, as opposed to +110 for the Cubs. On paper, the Nationals should win, but I’m always a bit iffy when it comes to betting on them – especially against the defending World Series champions. However, you have to go with the numbers: the Nationals had the better season this year, and I’m expecting them to finally make the National League Championship Series. Lay the small juice with them in this spot.
Pick: Nationals -140
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