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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Preview

Ryan Finley

The NC State Wolfpack had a realistic shot at becoming the first team in the program’s history to go 7-1 in ACC play before last week’s crushing loss to Wake Forest. Now they will look to turn the page and rebound from that disappointing defeat to finish the regular season on a high note. The Wolfpack still have an opportunity to go 6-2 in the ACC if they can take care of business against a rival outfit this Saturday afternoon at home. NC State will host the North Carolina Tar Heels with a chance to improve to 8-4 straight up and lock up its spot in the national top-25.

Details

Odds: North Carolina State -17

Date & Time: Saturday November 25th, 2017 – 3:30 PM ET

Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, North Carolina

Broadcast: ESPNU

Reasons To Bet On The North Carolina Tar Heels

For as bad as North Carolina has looked at times this season they can’t be completely overlooked heading in to this weekend. The Tar Heels are coming off their first win of the season over an FBS opponent two weeks ago and they will carry over the momentum from another emotional win after taking down West Carolina when they take the field this weekend. Head coach Larry Fedora talked about his team’s motivation to finish the year on a high note and North Carolina has shown it in those back-to-back victories. Sophomore quarterback Nathan Elliott has the potential to surprise after throwing for 240 yards and four touchdowns in the first half of last week’s win over the Catamounts. The Tar Heels are listed as 17-point road underdogs so they should have a chip on their shoulders when they take the field this weekend.

Reasons To Bet On The North Carolina State Wolfpack

NC State was absolutely crushed in last week’s loss to Wake Forest. Now they need to put that defeat behind them and concentrate on finishing strong. A fumble near the goal line late in the game kept the Wolfpack from coming back late against the Demon Deacons. It should serve as motivation to bounce back at home this weekend and gain some momentum before a bowl game. NC State had a significant edge in time of possession versus Wake Forest as they ran 94 offensive plays compared to just 56 for the Demon Deacons. If they are able to dominate the time of possession like that again this week then they should be able to wear down the Tar Heels at home. The absence of key wide receiver Steph Louis and top rusher Nyheim Hines really hurt NC State’s offense in the second half against Wake Forest so it will be interesting to see if those two are available and healthy this week. The Wolfpack have averaged 30.4 points per game this season. If they can hit that average in this game then they should be able to bounce back with a win at home to close out the regular season.

Outlook

North Carolina State opened up at -17.5 but that line has come down since then. Now we see the Tar Heels getting +16, which means that we’ve crossed the key number of 17. In terms of the total, we saw it open up at 54 but it has now moved up to 56. It seems like bettors like the dog and the over.

NC State is the better team but is dealing with injuries and coming off a brutal loss to Wake Forest in which they let a very winnable game slip away. The Wolfpack should be able to bounce back with a better effort at home but 17 points is a lot to give up as a home favorite. North Carolina is coming off a pair of emotional wins and will be motivated to upset a rival on the road this weekend. The Tar Heels might not have the firepower to win this game but they should be able to at least keep it close and cover as 17-point road underdogs this weekend.

Pick: North Carolina +17

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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