Although few may challenge for the NASCAR crown in 2016, some interesting story lines arise and some questionable betting lines need to be evaluated for this group of competitors. So let’s get started.
ODDS TO WIN 2016 SPRINT CUP SERIES CHAMPIONSHIP (11/26/16)
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 5/1 |
| Joey Logano | 6/1 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 7/1 |
| Kyle Busch | 7/1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8/1 |
| Matt Kenseth | 8/1 |
| Carl Edwards | 12/1 |
| Denny Hamlin | 12/1 |
| Kurt Busch | 12/1 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15/1 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 18/1 |
| Kasey Kahne | 25/1 |
| Kyle Larson | 30/1 |
| Tony Stewart | 30/1 |
| Chase Elliott | 40/1 |
| Clint Bowyer | 40/1 |
| Jamie McMurray | 40/1 |
| Ryan Blaney | 40/1 |
| Ryan Newman | 40/1 |
| Aric Almirola | 100/1 |
| Austin Dillon | 100/1 |
| Field (Any Other Driver) | 100/1 |
| Greg Biffle | 100/1 |
| Paul Menard | 100/1 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 300/1 |
| Ricky Stenhouse | 300/1 |
| Trevor Bayne | 300/1 |
| Danica Patrick | 500/1 |
11. Martin Truex Jr.: 2015 was a beaming success for Truex Jr and the single car Furniture Row team. They were competitive throughout the entirety of the season. Las Vegas Odds makers acknowledged by this placing him in the 11th spot at +1800. The team’s first win came in a dominating performance at Pocono Raceway midway through the year. More importantly, the team finished in the top five eight times and the top ten in 22 of the 36 races. Truex Jr. and the Furniture Row Team will be taking their show to Toyota from Chevrolet in 2016. Considering the progress Toyota displayed last year, I fully expect the talented driver will contend for the Chase again.
12. Kasey Kahne: 2015 was definitely a down year for the Hendricks Motorsport’s driver. Expectations were at an all time high and he flat out didn’t produce. With no wins and only one pole, it was clear the Farmers Insurance #5 wasn’t bringing his A-game. He only led 66 laps all year and had an average finish of 18.9. If Kahne wants to improve this year he will need stay consistent on the intermediate tracks, where he historically excels. Whether or not he can see this through to fruition is why Vegas odds has him in the 12th spot at +2500.
13. Kyle Larson: 2014’s Rookie of the Year Driver Kyle Larson suffered the good ole’ sophomore blues in 2015. He accumulated a measly two top fives and 10 top tens. If Larson can capture a victory at a short track like Bristol, where he has shown promise, it might be enough for a Chase entry. I actually expect the young driver to improve this year though winning a race might be a few years off. If Larson gets into the Chase it will have to be by points through consistency on short and intermediate tracks. His + 3000 is right where it should be.
14. Tony Stewart: Well the swan song for the three time cup series champion comes down to this year. Recovering from a tragic year, in which the short fused driver was accused of purposely hitting a fellow competitor that resulted in his death, Stewart will look to regain his confidence and be competitive in 2016. Due to his lack of production over the last few years the odds makers have him at +3000. This probably is fair considering he registered no wins or poles, and finished with a paltry 24.8 average finish. I think Stewart will produce this year but equaling Jeff Gordon’s last year might be a bit of a stretch.
15. Chase Elliot: I can’t for the likes of me wrap my brain around the fact Vegas has this kid favored the same as a seasoned driver like Ryan Newman (+4000). I get that he’s taking over Jeff Gordon’s ride and that he has the pedigree that may be destined for success, but 15th is a bold placement for a rookie driver in the show. He will be part of a savvy team in Hendricks Motorsports and have plenty of experience to lean on, but don’t expect to much too soon from this kid, it’s just not realistic.
16. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a strong performer at plate-track races, which could find the veteran in the mix come chase time in 2016. With his move to Stewart Haas Racing there could be an upside to Bowyer in this years campaign. Joining the team could be doubled edged sword as a lot of attention will be paid to Tony Stewart for his going away tour. His +4000 induction is a fair indictment.
17. Jamie McMurray: The 17th spot at +4000 kind of baffles me here. It’s not that the #1 McDonalds car has been lacking in speed, he has, but where on the list he has been spotted gives me a pause. McMurray has proved he can win at the super speedways. One victory probably will get you into the dance. It may be hit or miss for a driver that only had four top fives and 10 top tens, but if he can find a way to victory lane through a restrictor-plate event, his experience could propel a long shot to a Chase run.
18. Ryan Blaney: Blaney looks to add to the long and prosperous resume’ of a Woods Brothers racing automobile. With a full-time ride in 2016, I expect this greenhorn to reel in the Rookie of the Year title in 2016. Prognosticators set Blaney at +4000. I think with the speed the organization has shown on the super speedways, this might be a little high. A shot at the title is a ways off for young Blaney, but betting him as Rookie of the Year is where I’d place my hard earned cash.
19. Ryan Newman: This in my opinion is far and away the best value for a long shot in the tier two category. Line Setters Odds have him at +4000. Though he might not be a contender for the Sprint cup title, look to take advantage of him early in one and one match-ups before his value increases. His 5 top fives, 15 top tens, and 13.5 average finish makes me wonder how this driver is valued so low. He has been as consistent as anybody and has proven he can finish strong in any site set in front of him.
20. Aric Almirola: Driving the Richard Petty # 43 car is not a burden most drivers want to shoulder. Almirola is a solid driver who can find away to get that elusive win. That was proven at Daytona during a rain-out in 2014. Although he didn’t record a win in 2015, he was in the running for the Chase by points alone. Again, I don’t understand why this driver is placed below the likes of a Stewart and Boyer or even a Larson. His 17.9 average should speak for itself. I wouldn’t hesitate to put him against another driver in this category via a one and one match-up, especially in a short track races like Martinsville. Sin City has him at +10000.
