Believe it or not, and you may not, the Houston Texans have made the playoffs for two consecutive seasons under head coach Bill O’Brien because somebody has to. The Texans (along with the Detroit Lions last season) have been the perfect argument for not expanding the playoff field.
Is there any reason to hope the Texans will make it three seasons in a row? The preseason and who wins their quarterback competition will tell us a lot. For now, all we can do is look at what they’ve done this off-season.
Free Agents Kept
Ryan Griffin, Tight end
Nick Novak, Kicker
Shane Lechler, Punter
Free Agents/Players Lost
A.J. Bouye, Cornerback, signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars
Quintin Demps, Safety, signed with the Chicago Bears
John Simon, Outside Linebacker, signed with the Indianapolis Colts
Soma Vainuku, Fullback, signed with the Atlanta Falcons
Brock Osweiler, Quarterback, traded to the Cleveland Browns
2017 NFL Draft
Round 1: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Round 2: Zach Cunningham, Linebacker, Vanderbilt
Round 3: D’Onta Foreman, Running Back, Texas
Round 4: Julie’n Davenport, Offensive Tackle, Bucknell
Round 4: Carlos Watkins, Defensive Tackle, Clemson
Round 5: Treston Decoud, Safety, Oregon State
Round 7: Kyle Fuller, Center, Baylor
Proposed Offensive Starters
QB: Tom Savage
RB: Lamar Miller
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Will Fuller
WR: Jaelen Strong
TE: C.J. Fiedorowicz
LT: Duane Brown
RT: Chris Clark
LG: Xavier Su’a-Filo
RG: Jeff Allen
C: Nick Martin
Offensive Outlook
I’ve plugged Tom Savage in as the starter at quarterback, but I’ll be legitimately surprised if he comes out of the preseason with the job. Deshaun Watson was, by my scouting, the best quarterback in this draft class and as the guy that said that same thing about Dak Prescott last season, I feel pretty confident in the call. If Savage starts half the season, this will be a lost year for the Texans. If they hand the keys to Watson, they have a chance to eek out a winning record again, while building something good for the future.
Lamar Miller was a solid pick up at running back for the Texans last season. He carried the ball 268 times for 1,073 yards with five touchdowns and caught 31 passes for one touchdown. With the problems the Texans had at quarterback, Miller had a lot on his shoulders and carried it well. Behind Miller there’s a solid depth chart, with Alfred Blue and rookie D’Onta Foreman out of Texas.
DeAndre Hopkins nearly had a 1,000-yard season in spite of the team’s QB issues, catcuing 78 passes for 954 yards and four touchdowns. Will Fuller had a solid rookie season, taking over on the No. 2 spot in the offense with 47 catches and 635 yards and two TDs. Jaelen Strong has been underused in his two seasons, but should settle into a slot role and compete for catches with tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz.
Proposed Defensive Starters
DE: J.J. Watt
DT: D.J. Reader
DE: Jadeveon Clowney
OLB: Whitney Mercilus
OLB: Zach Cunningham
ILB: Brian Cushing
ILB: Benardrick McKinney
CB: Kareem Jackson
CB: Jonathan Joseph
FS: Andre Hal
SS: Corey Moore
Defensive Outlook
Last season this was the No. 1 defensive unit in the NFL all without J.J. Watt. He’ll be back this season and paired with the emergent Jadeveon Clowney, should wreak plenty of havoc in offensive backfields. D.J. Reader moves up the depth chart to full time starter at defensive tackle. He played plenty in Watt’s place last season, but will move inside taking over for the departed Vince Wilfork.
At linebacker, the only change is rookie Zach Cunningham taking the place of John Simon, who left town for the AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts. Cunningham was one of the best defensive players in the 2016 draft and maybe the second best overall defender behind Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster. You might see other players listed at this spot, but there’s no way Cunningham doesn’t win it in camp. Brian Cushing had a down year statistically last season, but it might be more about the emergence of Bernardrick McKinney. McKinney had 129 tackles last season with five sacks, one forced fumble and two passes defended. Whitney Mercilus is one of th emost underrated players in the NFL on the outside and the third best pass rusher on the team.
The Texans lost their best cornerback in free agency in A.J. Bouye, but still have Kareem Jackson, one of the better corners in the game. Johnathan Joseph will start on the other side and he’s solid too. Kevin Johnson should slide in at nickle. Andre Hal returns at free safety, but the battle for strong safety I have Corey Moore starting, but he’ll be in a battle with K.J. Dillon and Eddie Pleasant.
Grade: A+
The Texans may have gotten significantly better, but it might not show up on the field. Rookie seasons like Prescott’s and Andrew Luck’s are rare and usually teams that go with a first-year signal caller are watching the playoffs at home. But you go with the young hand for it to pay off later and Watson, at quarterback, could bring a title to Houston just like he did Clemson.
O/U wins: 7.5
Preseason Schedule
Week 1: at Carolina Panthers
Week 2: New England Patriots
Week 3: at New Orleans Saints
Week 4: Dallas Cowboys
Regular Season Schedule
Week 1: Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 2: at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 3: at New England Patriots
Week 4: Tennessee Titans
Key game: Regardless of whether Savage gets the nod to begin the season, I see Watson taking over in October. This could be his first start at home against a formidable Titans team that could very well take Houston’s playoff spot (and first round loss) this season.
Week 5: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 6: Cleveland Browns
Key game: Three straight home games for Watson is almost too ideal a scenario. The Titans and Chiefs will be tough match ups, but the Browns could be a nice way to head into the bye week with a solid, Watson-friendly game plan and comfortable win.
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: at Seattle Seahawks
Week 9: Indianapolis Colts
Week 10: at Los Angeles Rams
Week 11: Arizona Cardinals
Week 12: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 13: at Tennessee Titans
Week 14: San Francisco 49ers
Week 15: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 16: Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 17: at Indianapolis Colts
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