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Why Oklahoma City’s Championship Hopes May Already Be Dead

Without stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in the lineup until Christmas at the earliest, the Thunder's long-term goals could be in serious jeopardy.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are like a ship that’s taking too much water. They are sinking, and if things don’t change quickly, the Thunder could be done. And the month of November has just begun.

Long-Term Losses Of Durant & Westbrook

This is the biggest reason why Oklahoma City is already in huge trouble, to the point where it might not be able to dig out of it. Russell Westbrook is out, Kevin Durant is out and it doesn’t look like they’ll be back for another six weeks at least.

The NBA is a superstar-oriented league and while we’ve seen the Thunder weather one injury to a star before (they were 20-7 when Westbrook went down last season), they can’t handle the loss of both. Don’t forget that Durant was the MVP of the league last season as this tandem combined for 53.8 points per game, 13.1 rebounds per game and 12.4 assists per game. You simply can’t subtract that off a team and expect them to maintain a competitive level in the West.

Without their stars, the Thunder just can’t compete. That’s the main reason why they are 1-4.

Short-Term Injuries To The Role Players

It’s bad enough when two superstars get injured. It’s even worse when the people who are supposed to be backing up the superstars and giving depth to the roster are out of commission as well. Perry Jones was beginning to play well at forward but he injured himself earlier this week and has an uncertain status going forward. Jones was averaging 15.6 per game in the limited action he saw this season.

Reggie Jackson suffered another injury earlier this week as well. His wrist was limp and that’s not good for someone who handles the ball as much as he does. Jackson had been averaging 18 points and over nine assists per game in the action he had seen this season. Starting guard Andre Roberson sprained his left foot on Monday, although his injury isn’t expected to be a long-term issue.

It’s probably just a string of really bad luck but regardless, the Thunder just don’t have enough bodies to withstand this much loss.

Nobody Knows Their Roles Anymore

So it’s pretty clear that injuries are the primary problem, but a major ripple effect is that the players left behind don’t know their roles. When the Thunder are at full strength, they know who their leaders are, they know who’s coming off the bench to give the team a spark and who’s getting the ball in crunch time.

Right now, they’ve got guys like Lance Thomas, Andre Roberson and Sebastian Telfair soaking up big minutes. The coaching staff is flying by the seam of their pants trying to fit new players into key roles and so far, it’s just not working.

Loss Of Home Court Advantage

The biggest reason why the Thunder might already be sunk is that by the time everyone gets healthy, they’ll be too far behind in the race for the top seed in the West and home-court advantage in the playoffs. Never mind the top seed in the conference, if they fall too far behind, they might not even make the playoffs.

Last season, the Western Conference produced nine teams with 48 wins or more. Even if the Thunder somehow manage to play .500 until Durant and Westbrook are back, they’d still have an extremely steep hill to climb to compete with teams like the San Antonio Spurs for the top seed in the West. While qualifying for the playoffs is the first step, this is a Thunder team with huge aspirations.

That No. 1 spot is important to them as the margins between the top teams in the conference are razor thin. Home-court advantage could make all of the difference come playoff time. Just ask the Spurs, who went 9-1 in home games during the 2013-14 Western Conference playoffs.

Once at 5/1 to win the 2014-15 NBA Championship, the Thunder have dropped to 14/1.

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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