The No. 16 Oklahoma State Cowboys visit Lawrence to take on the Kansas Jayhawks this Saturday in a matchup of Big 12 teams. The Cowboys are a 21-point favorite, with the Over/Under set at 50.5. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.
Since opening the season with a 37-31 loss to top-ranked Florida State, Oklahoma State (4-1) has had a rather smooth ride, easily handling Missouri State and Texas-San Antonio to finish their non-conference schedule. The Cowboys then opened Big 12 play with victories over mediocre Texas Tech and Iowa State teams, with all four victories coming by a combined score of 165-91. The young OSU squad has gained valuable experience and game minutes in the meantime, allowing several underclassmen to settle in to their roles as key contributors, while also providing valuable snaps for backups as well. Longtime backup-turned-starter Daxx Garman has led the charge, throwing for 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns in his first four games, the last three coming as a starter. Oklahoma State gets one more chance to work the kinks out against the worst team in the conference before heading into a brutal second half of their schedule.
The Kansas Jayhawks (2-3) are in the midst of yet another throwaway season that has fans counting the days until basketball season tips off in the Fog Allen Fieldhouse. Offensively, the Jayhawks rank towards the bottom of every major statistical category. Their zero-point effort against Texas on September 27th was enough for third year coach Charlie Weis to be shown the door. Defensive coordinator and Lawrence native Clint Bowen has taken over in the interim, losing 33-14 on the road to West Virginia last week in his head coaching debut. Kansas’ offense hardly fared much better, compiling a laughable 176 yards of total offense and nine first downs. Defensively, KU played well, holding the Mountaineers to two offensive touchdowns, the remainder of their points coming as a result of field goals and a kick return. In their three losses, the Jayhawks have scored a total of just 17 points, while giving up 97.
Running Woes
Although pleasantly surprised at quarterback Garman’s production thus far, Cowboys coach Mike Gundy has made it known that he is not satisfied with the running game, telling the media this week that “We’re not very explosive in that area.” Gundy placed a lot of blame on the inexperienced and injury-riddled offensive line. “We have to continue working upfront,” he said. “We were better than we were the week before with blocking upfront, but we need to continue to get movement.”
One obvious indication of the Cowboys’ trouble in the run game is the lack of production from tailback Tyreek Hill, who possesses world class sprinter speed and is a scoring threat every time he touches the ball. Hill has averaged just 55 yards of offense his last four games. In the return game however, Hill has 480 yards, including a blazing 97 yard touchdown return against Iowa State last week.
Offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich will surely look for more ways to get Hill involved this Saturday against a Jayhawk defense that is giving up 184.4 yards per game on the ground.
Quarterback Carousel
The Jayhawks quarterback situation is one you’d normally expect in the spring and fall, with three players now suddenly in the fold. Sophomore Montell Cozart has been the starter all season, but was yanked in the West Virginia game and replaced by junior Michael Cummings after starting off 4 – 10. Cummings didn’t fare much better himself, going 8 – 17 for just 65 yards. Bowen even sent in sophomore UCLA transfer T.J. Millweard for a possession, and he completed his only pass attempt, good for four yards. Coach Bowen has not ruled out giving all three quarterbacks time against Oklahoma State, essentially declaring the position open. “We’ll see which ones are handling the parts of the offense that they can control and are best making the decisions that need to be made,” Bowen said.
Highlighted Trends
Kansas has not won a game in October the last two seasons. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The total has gone UNDER in six of their last seven. KU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home. They are 2-9 ATS against OSU the last 11 meetings. Oklahoma State is 9-4 ATS in their last 13. The total has gone over five of their last six games, and they’ve gone over in four of their last six on the road. OSU is ranked 23rd nationally with 39.2 points per game, while KU is ranked 76th nationally in points allowed. Oklahoma State won last year’s meeting in Stillwater by a score of 42-6.
Game Forecast
Oklahoma State doesn’t lose to Kansas, regardless of where the game is played. Kansas’ suddenly shaky quarterback situation makes a bad offense even worse. The Cowboys secondary will no doubt be looking for a big day of padding their stats. Kansas is certainly not terrible defensively, but they will still have trouble stopping Garman from throwing deep, just like every other team so far. Hill and Desmond Roland will surely have their way against a weak KU run defense.
The Cowboys will score often and quickly, and should be looking for a return touchdown against a Jayhawk squad that ranks dead last nationally in kickoff coverage. KU will look for Corey Avery and De’Andre Mann to run the ball effectively and keep the Cowboy offense off of the field as much as possible, with mixed success. Due to depth issues defensively, look for Gundy to play lots of backups in the second half when the game is well in hand, allowing for some late Jayhawk points.
Pick: Oklahoma State (-21) with the Over of 50.5
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