The (14) Oklahoma State Cowboys head into enemy territory looking to bounce back after their first loss of the season when they play the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The contest is set to go off on Saturday, September 30th at 8:00 p.m. EST. The BIG-12 Conference match-up can be viewed on FOX for your Saturday night entertainment. Coming into this game, the Cowboys are a -10 point favorite and the over/under is at an outrageous 84.5 points.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys were handed their first defeat of the season last week at home against the TCU Horned Frogs. In that game, the Cowboys committed four turnovers, including two interceptions from standout quarterback Mason Rudolph. Because of the mistakes, Oklahoma State dug themselves too deep of a hole to get out of. As a result, they lost 31-44 and dropped from 6th in the nation to 14th.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders went on the road and beat the Houston Cougars as a seven-point underdog. In fact, it was my outright dog pick of the day in last week’s Thursday College Football Throwdown podcast. The 27-24 victory improved the Red Raiders record to 3-0. Now, Texas Tech is brimming with confidence coming into this match-up against the Cowboys.
The last time these two programs faced-off on the gridiron in 2016, the Oklahoma State edged Texas Tech 45-44 in a wild shoot-out in Stillwater.
(14) Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1)
Well, things certainly didn’t go the Cowboys way last Saturday when the TCU Horned Frogs came knocking. Quarterback Mason Rudolph struggled to find any rhythm and uncharacteristically served up two picks. Against TCU, Rudolph was 22 of 41 for 398 yards with two touchdowns and the two interceptions. Overall, he now has over 1,500 yards of passing with 13 endzone strikes and three picks. I expect the stellar signal-caller to rebound in a big way against a suspect Texas Tech secondary this weekend.
Overall, he now has over 1,500 yards of passing with 13 endzone strikes and three picks. I expect the stellar signal-caller to rebound in a big way against a suspect Texas Tech secondary this weekend.
Running back Justice Hill tried his best to keep the Cowboys offense balanced. He rushed the football 25 times for 102 yards and a score. He also caught three balls for another 27 yards. Unfortunately, it was for not as Oklahoma State turned the ball over too many times.
Outstanding wideout James Washington refused to be denied in the loss to the TCU Horned Frogs. It was more of the same from Washington, catching six pass3 yards and a score. Teammate Marcel Ateman couldn’t find a way to get the ball across the goalline but did reel in six more balls for 100 yards in the loss.
The Oklahoma State defense was on the field for a long time in the loss to the Horned Frogs. TCU controlled the ball for over 39 minutes and put up almost 240 yards on the ground. The secondary will be the unit that now has to step up because the Red Raiders like to throw the ball early and often. Currently, the back-half is doing okay. They rank 49th in the country surrendering just under 210 yards per game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders were up 17 points with about seven minutes to go but gave up two touchdowns to hold on for the win against Houston. Fortunately, the last of those came with less than 20 seconds left on the game clock.
In the victory, Red Raiders quarterback Nic Shimonek had a workman-like performance, tossing the football around for 321 yards on 29 of 45 completions. The gunslinger also put up two touchdowns and one interception to help the Red Raiders offense down the field. In 2017, Shimonek has thrown for 1,248 yards with 11 scores and only one pick. It appears the senior has slipped into his starting roll in the Red Raiders’ system quite nicely.
Texas Tech got plenty of support from its ground game to help keep the Cougars guessing on first down. Because Texas Tech is a pass-first club, this isn’t always the case. Responding to the call, tailback Justin Stockton had an excellent all-around game for the Red Raiders. In the win, he rushed for 102 yards on 10 carries and had two catches for 22 yards with a score. I expect the Red Raiders to try and duplicate those numbers against a weak defensive front seven from Stillwater.
Nic Shimonek is not stingy about who he decides to distribute the ball too. Once again, that was the case against the Cougars last weekend. Seven different pass catchers got a chance to move the chains. Wide receiver Keke Coutee was definitely the top performer, catching 11 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown. The Texas native has now accumulated 28 catches for 448 yards and four scores. Like James Washington, I expect that Coutee will have another big performance.
Wide receiver Keke Coutee was definitely the top performer, catching 11 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown. The Texas native has now accumulated 28 catches for 448 yards and four scores. Like James Washington, I expect that Coutee will have another big performance.
Defensively, the Red Raiders did a pretty good job of limiting the Houston Cougars last Saturday. Yes, they did give up two late scores that made the game seem closer than it was, but overall they did fairly well. In the victory, they held Houston to 427 total yards and 6 of 18 on third down conversions. Undoubtedly, this will be the Red Raiders defenses’ biggest challenge of the season.
Prediction
There is no secret as to what Las Vegas thinks is going to go down in Lubbock, Texas on Saturday night. The oddsmakers have this game’s total at 84.5 and even I’m not sure if this is enough. We know that it wouldn’t have been in last year’s contest against each other. With that being said, I am not of fan of taking such outrageous totals. But, they do come in as often as they don’t so I’m not trying to suggest to take the under either. I’m personally staying away from it.
I think that the Cowboys will come out on fire after suffering their first defeat of the season. Mason Rudolph will certainly be looking for a bounce-back performance. Similarly, the Red Raiders are full of confidence and should put up enough points to stick around to the end.
So with that in mind, I suggest that you make your play with the+10 point home dog in this game. Look, realistically you just buy this up to 10.5 and get the hook and walk away. That sounds like the best bet on the board for this BIG-12 Conference showdown.
Trends
The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Under is 4-1 in the Cowboys last five road games.
The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
The Red Raiders 4-0 ATS in their four games overall.
The Over is 14-5 in the Red Raiders last 19 home games.
The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
