The New England Patriots are inching closer to locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC but to get it done, they’ll need to show up on Sunday. The Patriots either need a win on Sunday or an Oakland Raiders loss to lock it up, but given what transpired last season when the Patriots were in the exact same position, you can bank on them putting forth a much better effort.
Last season, the Patriots needed to win at Miami in Week 17 to lock up the No. 1 seed but they failed. As a result, they had to visit the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game instead of hosting that contest, and they ended up losing. It’s likely that that contest is fresh on their minds. Look for them to go full tilt in this Week 17 matchup as they try to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Moneyline: Patriots -410
Handicap/Spread Odds: Patriots -9.5
Total O/U: 44.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 9/18/2016 | MIA 24 – NE 31 | NE -5.5 | O 42 |
| 1/3/2016 | NE 10 – MIA 20 | MIA 10 | U 46.5 |
| 10/29/2015 | MIA 7 – NE 36 | NE -8 | U 51 |
| 12/14/2014 | MIA 13 – NE 41 | NE -9.5 | O 49 |
| 9/7/2014 | NE 20 – MIA 33 | MIA 3.5 | O 47.5 |
On The Patriots Side of the Ball (13-2 Record, 12-3 ATS)
The Patriots have had another ho hum 13-win season. They’ve mowed down almost everything in their path save for a loss to the Buffalo Bills when they were without Tom Brady and a close home loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Of late, they haven’t really been challenged. They have won six straight since that loss to the Seahawks and have had very little trouble moving the football. They are averaging 27.5 points per game over that span and are coming off a contest where they racked 41 points against the New York Jets.
Although the Patriots are missing Rob Gronkowski, they seem to have adjusted while elevating the weapons they have. James White and Dion Lewis are dynamic receiving threats out of the backfield, rookie receiver Malcolm Mitchell is playing a bigger role and the team is starting to incorporate waiver wire addition Michael Floyd. They’re looking stronger and stronger by the week as the playoffs approach.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | NYJ | W 41-3 | W -17 | U 45 |
| 12/18/2016 | @DEN | W 16-3 | W -3 | U 43 |
| 12/12/2016 | BAL | W 30-23 | W -6 | O 45 |
| 12/4/2016 | LA | W 26-10 | W -13 | U 44.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | @NYJ | W 22-17 | L -8.5 | U 48 |
On The Dolphins Side of the Ball (10-5 Record, 9-6 ATS)
The Dolphins are in an interesting spot in this game. They are still playing for something this week but their chances of changing their seeding are slim. Theoretically, they could move up to the No. 5 seed and play the Houston Texans rather than the Pittsburgh Steelers – a much more favorable matchup – if they were to win and the Kansas City Chiefs were to lose. However, the Chiefs are a road favorite at San Diego. That begs the question: how much fight will the Dolphins have? If they get behind early, there is a good chance that they wave the white flag.
Remember that the Dolphins are banged up at a couple of key positions and won’t have a bye. They’ve exerted a lot of energy to get to this spot – including an overtime win at Buffalo last week. Their star running back, Jay Ajayi, is dealing with a bad shoulder. They may not want to risk losing him for a playoff game by overworking him in this spot.
Miami has played well and they have momentum on their side, but this is one spot where they might want to let the foot off the gas. Short term pains for long term gains.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/24/2016 | @BUF | W 34-31 x | W 4.5 | O 44.5 |
| 12/17/2016 | @NYJ | W 34-13 | W -2.5 | O 40 |
| 12/11/2016 | ARI | W 26-23 | W 2 | O 44 |
| 12/4/2016 | @BAL | L 6-38 | L 3.5 | O 41.5 |
| 11/27/2016 | SF | W 31-24 | L -7.5 | O 44.5 |
Quick Analysis
Both teams have been excellent against the spread this season. The Patriots have been one of the best in the NFL while the Dolphins – after a crummy 1-4 start – have been one of the most reliable bets throughout the second half of the season. Miami has covered three straight and eight of their last 10 games.
Prediction
The Patriots came out flat against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 last year and it cost them dearly. Don’t expect the same thing to happen again. They’re going to come out firing to make sure that the Dolphins don’t feel like they have much of a chance. If they do so, Miami will likely start to pull starters as they are not a team with a lot of depth. They’ve overcome injuries all season long and don’t want to risk anymore.
It’s a big number to lay on the road but it’s the right move to make. Bet the Patriots in this spot.
Pick: Patriots -9.5
Note: The betting odds are subject to change throughout the week leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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