Paul Richardson may not have been a huge name in the wide receiver market, but scarcity at the position led the Washington Redskins to follow up his rookie contract with a five-year, $40 million deal with $12.5 million guaranteed.
It's Official: #Redskins sign WR Paul Richardson. #HTTR
Welcome to D.C., @prichiejr: https://t.co/hXXnhC90h2 pic.twitter.com/be8ynh1OkF
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) March 15, 2018
The former Seattle Seahawk brings a new skill set to the Redskins that could see him more involved than he was in the Pacific Northwest. He’ll need that (plus a significant uptick in production) if he wants to see the end of that contract and/or become a significant fantasy contributor.
Reasons to Get Excited
Deep Threat
Richardson is small (six feet, 183 pounds) but he’s fast. He can provide a vertical threat that the Redskins have lacked since DeSean Jackson’s departure.
Paul Richardson picked up the most yards on post-to-corner and corner-to-post routes in 2017 pic.twitter.com/Lg4eRPpgyK
— PFF (@PFF) March 27, 2018
That might seem like bad news for his fantasy value considering Washington’s new quarterback, Alex Smith, has a career-long reputation for consistently throwing short passes. While that was true for most of his career, he showed he could throw deep in 2017. According to Pro Football Focus, Smith was the most accurate deep ball passer in the league last season. Richardson should a have a few big-play opportunities per game.
Career Year
Richardson is still young (26 on Friday) and is coming off his best year as a pro. He was ranked 39th among wide receivers in PPR leagues as Seattle’s third option behind Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham.
The Redskins must believe that Richardson’s best football is ahead of him. If they’re correct, we can expect him to be in line for boom-bust WR3 production.
More Opportunity
From time to time, Richardson showed he could be a top receiver in Seattle. His highlight reel features some of the best catches in the league.
He wasn’t a one-trick pony, either. Though Richardson is best-suited for vertical passes, he had a talent for moving the chains on third down. Plus, three of his six touchdowns came in the red zone, including a game-winner in Week 2 against the 49ers.
Richardson finished the season tied for 51st among receivers with 78 targets. He tied for 66th in targets per game (4.9) and 112th in target rate (9.6 percent). If the Redskins make more of an effort to get him the ball, entering the WR2 conversation is not out of the question. After all, Golden Tate accomplished something similar when he left Seattle after the 2013 season.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Mostly Ineffective
Entering 2017, Richardson had 51 catches for 599 yards and two touchdowns in three seasons with the Seahawks. Aside from a few spectacular catches, he hadn’t done anything to justify Seattle selecting him with the 45th pick in the 2014 draft. His career year amounted to just 703 yards, tying him with Mohamed Sanu for 45th in the league.
It’s fair to be wary of a player who has his first good season in a contract year. If Richardson gives us the type of production we could expect from him for most of his career, he won’t be worthy of a roster spot.
Injury History
Richardson has two left ACL tears on his record: once in 2012 at the University of Colorado and once in the playoffs during his rookie year. He also suffered a season-ending hamstring injury after recovering from the second torn ACL.
His 2017 season was, once again, an outlier, as he played in a career-high 16 games with a career-high 13 starts. His previous career-highs were 15 and six, respectively.
Inconsistent
Like most vertical threats, Richardson couldn’t be counted on for steady week-to-week production. He had 35 yards or fewer seven times last year. He also scored five of his six touchdowns in Seattle’s first seven games.
His 16 yards per reception ranked eighth among receivers with more than 40 receptions, but it was impossible to project when he would be worth using. This trend could easily continue in Washington.
Conclusion
Richardson is an interesting case, as he fits two well-known fantasy archetypes. He is a talented but underused player moving to a new situation. He’s also a contract-year standout who could follow up his payday with the poor production to which we’re accustomed.
One advantage he does have is he’s not a big name, and therefore could be had more cheaply than he deserves. That being the case, he’d be an excellent flier to stash on the bench and a solid addition in best-ball leagues. Just know that there is a mountain of risk, so don’t draft him without a backup plan.
