There were plenty of teams with interesting storylines to follow this season. Among the most surprising were the Columbus Blue Jackets, who went from second-to-last in the Eastern Conference last season to 108 points this year.
John Tortorella will get Jack Adams consideration. Really let that sink in.
Let’s call a spade a spade. Torts was a laughingstock heading into this season. He essentially drove Ryan Johansen out of town. The Jackets got Seth Jones in return, but it was still considered Classic Torts.
Then there was the World Cup of Hockey debacle, in which Team USA put up an embarrassing performance with Tortorella at the helm. Phil Kessel was left off the roster, Dustin Byfuglien was benched for Jack Johnson, Torts tried to incite nationalism in a tournament that had a Frankenstein amalgamation of Team North America and Team Europe… it was a mess.
But then the series got underway. The Jackets had a healthy Sergei Bobrovsky. Cam Atkinson emerged as one of the league’s elite scorers. Columbus put up 10 on the Montreal Canadiens. They just kept winning…and winning…and winning…18 times in a row.
They sputtered a bit after the streak ended, but they still landed comfortably in the postseason, and are in as good a position to win their first playoff series in franchise history as ever.
Tomorrow, it begins.#MarchOn pic.twitter.com/y4HHYmzvGh
— Columbus Blue Jackets (@BlueJacketsNHL) April 11, 2017
But here’s the problem. They will have to deal with the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins in the opening round.
Pittsburgh cruised to the playoffs as the second-winningest team in the NHL. They amassed 111 points and 50 wins. Their 31 wins on home ice is also second in the league, behind only the Washington Capitals. They are limping into the postseason, though, and may not be full strength.
These two teams met in 2014. Columbus stunned Marc-Andre Fleury and the Pens by forcing a sixth game, but the Pens skated away with the series win.
This is just the third time the Jackets have made the playoffs in their young franchise’s history.
Pittsburgh is a -180 to win the series.
Let’s take a look at the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Penguins.
If Pittsburgh is fully healthy, they have the best offense in the National Hockey League. Period. Their 3.39 goals-for per game led the league by quite a bit. Sidney Crosby led the league in goals with 44, and placed second in the Art Ross race with 89 points, tied with Patrick Kane.
The only thing that will hold them back is the health of Evgeni Malkin. It is already a foregone conclusion that Chris Kunitz and Carl Hagelin will not be ready for the start of the series, maybe not for the entire series. Malkin (33 goals, 72 points) has been out since March 15th, but has been back to full practice and is expected to be in the lineup for Game 1. Whether his shoulder problems will flare up again remains to be seen. But his return is huge for Pittsburgh.
Pigeon🐦 couldn't even get a regular stall pic.twitter.com/KSxDnrvA3f
— Phil Kessel (@PKessel81) April 6, 2017
Columbus is plenty potent. They ranked sixth in goal scoring in the league, and Cam Atkinson is a game-changing talent. In the first meeting between these two teams this season, the Jackets put up seven goals. The season series would up getting split 2-2, but the cannon can sound at any time when the Jackets are on the ice.
But let’s face facts. Crosby, Malkin, and Phil Kessel all have more points than the Jackets’ leading scorer (Atkinson). That trio loses to no one in the offense department.
Defense: advantage Blue Jackets.
The Penguins’ blueline took a big hit last week, as Kris Letang was ruled out for the season with a herniated disc in his neck. However, the Penguins got Olli Maatta and Trevor Daley back in the waning days of the regular season. Daley played in the final two games, while Maatta played in the finale against the Rangers.
Letang’s loss is incredibly detrimental. A lot hinges on whether or not Daley and Maatta can get acclimated to the playoff pace quickly. Even if they can, Columbus may be a more well-oiled machine.
In fact, Columbus is the second-stingiest defense in the NHL. The Jackets only allowed 2.35 goals per game, while the Penguins allowed 2.79.
Rookie Zach Werenski will be key to the Jackets’ success on the blueline. Werenski has been recovering from an injury, but is expected to be back at full strength for Game 1. Werenski has not played since April 2nd. The rookie had 47 points, 21 on the man advantage, in the regular season. All-Star Seth Jones finished with 42 points. Very rarely does a team have two defensemen with 40+ points. Only Justin Schultz has more than 26 in the Pens’ lineup with Letang out of commission.
Special teams: advantage Penguins.
Again, it’s almost unfair. Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel and Evgeni Malkin save the day.
Pittsburgh has the third-best powerplay in the league with a 23.1% efficiency rate. Columbus is 12th at 19.9%. While the Jackets have a balanced attack, they have only one powerplay goal in their last 10 games. The Penguins have seven.
Columbus has a significant advantage in the penalty killing department. The absence of Carl Hagelin is a major hinderance in that respect for the Penguins.
But the best penalty kill in the world will have to contain Phil Kessel, fifth in the NHL in powerplay points, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin…oh, and Justin Schultz.
Yes, Schultz has cemented himself as one of the more effective players on the man advantage in the Metro. Schultz had 20 points this season, including seven since March 1st. Schultz was acquired mid-season last year from the Edmonton Oilers. Last postseason, Schultz had four points, three coming on the man advantage.
He’s quietly going to be one of the biggest weapons for the Jackets to deal with.
Goaltending: advantage Blue Jackets.
Sergei Bobrovsky is winning his second Vezina Trophy this season. We’re all in agreement on that, yes? Yes. Good.
Bob led the league in goals-against average at 2.06. He led in save percentage at .931. His 41 wins ranks third in the league, and he amassed seven shutouts in the process.
He’s just so dang good. And he’s been fully healthy all year, which should scare opponents.
The Penguins will likely be countering with Matt Murray, the man who led them to the Stanley Cup between the pipes last season. He and Marc-Andre Fleury were fairly balanced this year in terms of workload (Murray missing a month of action helped that a bit), but it was clear that Murray was the better goalie night in and night out.
Murray had a 2.08 goals-against average and .923 save percentage last postseason. He won all but one game- Jeff Zatkoff earned one win against the Rangers.
Murray may have “playoff experience” on his side, but let’s be real. Bobrovsky was the best goaltender in the National Hockey league this year. To say he has not earned the advantage in this category would be a disservice to his performance.
Bold Predictions:
1) Marc-Andre Fleury will not play another game as a Penguin.
2) Phil Kessel will outscore Sidney Crosby this series.
3) Brandon Dubinsky will lead the Jackets in goal scoring.
4) Columbus will not earn their first playoff series win. And that will be the biggest disappointment of the 2016-2017 season.
Prediction: Penguins in 7.
