It will be a battle between Big 10 opponents when the Illinois Fighting Illini (12-13, 2-10 Big 10) welcome the Penn State Nittany Lions (17-9, 7-6 Big 10) to State Farm Center. The game is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 11, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 146.5 points with Penn State opening as a 2.5-point favorite.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Prediction
The last time the Nittany Lions played, they defeated the Maryland Terrapins, 74-70. Penn State’s rebounding was their biggest advantage. The Nittany Lions had nine offensive rebounds and 27 total rebounds, while the Terrapins had four and 23, respectively. Penn State was led by Lamar Stevens, who was the game’s high scorer with 25 points on 10-for-12 shooting.
The Fighting Illini were beaten by the Wisconsin Badgers in their last contest, 78-69. Wisconsin’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Illinois. The Badgers had a rate of 0.617 (above their season average of 0.509), while the Fighting Illini posted a mark of 0.464 (below the 0.515 mark opponents have averaged against Wisconsin this season). Trent Frazier put together a solid game for Illinois, leading both teams in scoring with 32 points on 10-for-20 shooting.
Illinois might have a difficult time finding the bottom of the net as they battle against one of the nation’s best defenses. Penn State currently ranks 24th in defensive efficiency while the Fighting Illini rank 156th in offensive efficiency.
Penn State holds records of 17-9 straight up (SU) and 11-10-1 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Nittany Lions’ games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Illinois is 12-13 SU and 10-11 ATS. Games including the Fighting Illini have typically finished under the total (57.1 percent).
Frazier has averaged 14.4 points and 3.8 assists over the last five games for Illinois.
After the Nittany Lions won both games against the Fighting Illini last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, Penn State won 83-70. The Nittany Lions made 18 of their 20 free throws (90.0 percent) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (26.3 vs. 21.4).
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Pick
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Penn State, ATS Winner – Penn State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Penn State is 4-5-1 ATS with 6 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Illinois is 5-6 ATS with 6 overs, 4 unders and 1 push.
Penn State ranks 12th in blocks per game (5.5) while Illinois ranks 200th (2.2).
The Nittany Lions rank 28th in steals per game (7.7) while the Fighting Illini rank 160th in steals allowed per game (6.7).
Illinois ranks 146th in three pointers attempted per game (22.0) while Penn State ranks 248th (18.8).
The Nittany Lions rank 46th in assists allowed per game (11.5) while the Fighting Illini rank 68th (12.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Penn State is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Illinois is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push over their last five games.
The Nittany Lions’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.0, down from 9.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Fighting Illini have scored an average of 74.8 points per game (2.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 74.2 points per game (1.7 above their season average).
