Offense meets defense when the No. 22 Ohio State Buckeyes (18-4, 9-0 Big 10) welcome the Penn State Nittany Lions (13-8, 3-5 Big 10) to Value City Arena. The game begins at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 25, 2018.
Ohio State is a 10-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 139 points.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Prediction
The last time the Nittany Lions played, they were defeated by the Northwestern Wildcats, 70-61. Northwestern’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Penn State. The Wildcats had a rate of 9.0 (better than their season average of 15.4), while the Nittany Lions posted a mark of 22.5 (above their season average of 15.7). Shep Garner was the game’s leading scorer with 22 points on 7-for-13 shooting.
The Buckeyes beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers in their last outing, 64-59. The Buckeyes had a superb free throw rate of 0.308 (above their season average of 0.236) and had a turnover percentage of 8.8 (better than their season average of 15.5). Keita Bates-Diop was Ohio State’s high scorer with 20 points on 8-for-16 shooting.
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Ohio State currently ranks 56th in offensive efficiency and Penn State ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency.
Penn State has a solid 13-8 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 7-9-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Nittany Lions’ 17 games with betting action, 10 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is 18-4 SU and 11-9 ATS. Similarly to Penn State, games involving the Buckeyes also have a tendency to go under the total (75.0 percent).
After the Buckeyes won the sole game against the Nittany Lions last season, 71-70, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Buckeyes had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (19.4 vs. 8.8) and had a better free throw rate (0.275 vs. 0.236).
Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Ohio State, ATS Winner – Penn State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Penn State is 2-5-1 ATS with 4 overs and 4 unders.
Ohio State is 5-6 ATS at home with 9 unders and 2 overs.
Penn State ranks 35th in three pointers allowed per game (19.0) while Ohio State ranks 225th (24.3).
The Nittany Lions rank 23rd in steals per game (8.1) while the Buckeyes rank 128th (6.1).
Ohio State ranks 32nd in blocks allowed per game (2.6) while Penn State ranks 105th (3.5).
The Buckeyes rank 45th in rebounds allowed per game (32.1) while the Nittany Lions rank 94th (33.5).
Penn State ranks 39th in assists allowed per game (11.4) while Ohio State ranks 53rd (11.7).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Penn State is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Ohio State is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Nittany Lions have been outscored by an average of 1.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Penn State has defeated opponents by an average of 9.5 points.
During their last five games, the Buckeyes have scored an average of 72.2 points per game (5.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 57.6 points per game (8.3 below their season average).
