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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Free Pick 06/23/18

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies will be taking on their divisional rival Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. The game gets underway 4:05 p.m. ET and Mid-Atlantic Sports Network is in line to televise the matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Odds

Washington (+105) is coming into this one as the underdog against Philadelphia (-115) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 8 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total sit at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds standing at +130 for the Phillies -1.5 runs and -150 for the Nationals +1.5.

The Phillies have gone 40-33 SU this year and are 31-41 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 5.7 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having lost 15.9 units ATS. Philadelphia’s covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Nationals, on the other hand, are 40-34 SU and 37-36 ATS. They’ve lost 6.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 0.6 units ATS. Washington has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.

Nationals games have a 28-43-2 over/under record so far in 2018. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 34-34-4.

Right-hander Aaron Nola is the projected starter for Philadelphia. Nola (8-2, 2.55 ERA) has racked up 94 strikeouts in 95.1 innings so far. He has yet to face Washington this year, but he made four starts against the Nationals in 2017, putting together a 1-1 record against them with a 3.22 ERA and 30 strikeouts.

The Nationals will turn to righty Erick Fedde (0-2, 5.63 ERA) to the mound. Fedde has 13 strikeouts and four walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.44. Fedde did not record a start against the Phillies in 2017.

As a unit, Washington’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have a 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.77 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 23 games against divisional foes, Nationals starters have an ERA of 3.82 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.93.

The Washington offense is putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 3.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .261/.339/.398 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon have led the Nationals’ hitters this year. Turner is slashing .268/.351/.403 with eight home runs, 26 RBIs, 40 runs and 20 stolen bases, while Rendon’s line is .282/.355/.476 with seven homers, 28 RBIs and 27 runs scored.

For the visiting squad, Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game and its starters own a 3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.10 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.06, along with a K/9 of 9.58.

The Phillies offense has slashed .236/.322/.394 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 7.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led Philadelphia’s hitters. Herrera is slashing .308/.362/.507 with 13 home runs, 43 RBIs and 39 runs scored. Hernandez (.268/.376/.396) has produced eight homers, 27 RBIs, 53 runs and 10 stolen bases.

The Phillies have gained 5.8 units and are 23-29 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 24 of those games, as opposed to 25 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Nationals have netted 7.1 units and are 28-22 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 20 of those games, compared to 29 which went under the total.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

Philadelphia has recorded 20 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Washington has 17 XBH over its last five.

The Phillies have won five of their last six games SU.

Philadelphia fielders have seven errors over the last 10 games, compared to two errors for Washington over its last 10.

The Phillies have hit 19 home runs in their last 10 games, including 11 over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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